🔗 Copy link⇓ Download

ADSK, FAST

Requested read · Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:51 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.04 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.

Ranked

highest conviction first · click a name for its charts
1 ADSK Autodesk, Inc. Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more) 73 — 2 FAST Fastenal Company Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (4 selling vs 0 buying). No insider purchase offsets the selling; this is one-way selling. 62 —
#1 ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift XLK sector confirmed $494,175 CFO$1,670,998 other insiders (3) 4 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 73d since buy
73
conviction / 100
-4.1 since 26 Aug
70.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity12.0
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)16.3
Cross-asset confirmation14.5
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
Last
269.36
Add above
274.25
Cut below
241.33
50DMA
224.28
200DMA
248.63
ADSK daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
ADSK — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.11 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.321 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 6.3% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 1 CEO, 2 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (4 buying vs 0 selling)
  • CFO purchases $494,175 (EVP, CFO)
  • 0.1 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 5%
  • 73 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +21.0 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): -3.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 274.25 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (224.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (241.33) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Moorjani Janesh — EVP, CFO
  • 1 CFO purchase(s), $494,175 total; last filed 2026-06-15 18:41:15
  • Market cap $56,874,061,824 · 20d avg dollar volume $425,781,714
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$2,165,173
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers4 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $494,175, plus 3 by other insiders worth $1,670,998. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
29 May 2026Smith Stacy JDirector3,435$231.17$794,054+16.5%
15 Jun 2026Moorjani JaneshCFO2,500$197.67$494,175+36.3%
16 Jun 2026Anagnost AndrewCEO2,460$202.66$498,544+32.9%
23 Jun 2026Cahill John TDirector2,000$189.20$378,400+42.4%
Reaction to news
8 material events; 4 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 28 May: shrugged off (+1.7%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
03 Aug 268-KOther material event+2.3%+0.2%-1.2%0.9x+9.1%Neutral
13 Jul 268-KOther material event+0.9%+1.8%+2.6%0.4x+2.6%Neutral
18 Jun 268-KMaterial event+0.8%+0.4%-0.7%3.1x+1.3%Shrugged off
15 Jun 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created+0.8%+0.1%-1.7%1.2x-4.9%Neutral
29 May 2610-QQuarterly report-6.4%-4.0%-4.2%3.9x-0.6%Punished
28 May 268-KMaterial agreement; Regulation FD disclosure-0.3%+1.7%+1.1%2.2x-3.0%Shrugged off
28 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure-0.3%+1.7%+1.1%2.2x-3.0%Shrugged off
24 Apr 268-KDirector or officer change+0.3%+2.4%+1.6%0.7x+2.9%Rewarded
#2 FAST
Fastenal Company
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (4 selling vs 0 buying). No insider purchase offsets the selling; this is one-way selling.
Early Trend Expansion XLI sector confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
62
conviction / 100
-0.4 since 26 Aug
77.8
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity16.2
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation12.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (4 selling vs 0 buying). No insider purchase offsets the selling; this is one-way selling.
Last
51.13
Add above
52.92
Cut below
44.52
50DMA
48.16
200DMA
44.71
FAST daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
FAST — daily, 14 months
XLI sector ETF daily chart
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.19
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.223 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 7.9% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 4 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLI
  • XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLI vs SPY 6m: -10.6 pts
  • stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +11.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 52.92 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (48.16) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (44.52) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $58,671,554,560 · 20d avg dollar volume $342,626,950
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$4,276,782
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 4
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+0.00
Reaction to news
8 material events; 0 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 14 Jul: neutral (-2.8%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
16 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+0.8%+2.9%+3.4%1.1x-1.1%Neutral
16 Jul 268-K/ADirector or officer change+0.8%+2.9%+3.4%1.1x-1.1%Neutral
14 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-1.0%-2.8%-3.1%2.6x-1.6%Neutral
23 Jun 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created+0.0%-1.1%+0.3%0.9x+5.3%Neutral
12 Jun 268-KDirector or officer change+0.4%+0.4%-0.2%0.7x-1.0%Neutral
29 Apr 268-KDirector or officer change-1.0%-2.2%-2.2%0.8x+2.3%Neutral
24 Apr 268-KMaterial event-0.4%-1.7%-2.4%0.5x+1.0%Neutral
16 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report+0.0%+0.7%+0.5%0.8x+1.6%Neutral