DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
Late Extension, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (18/20); weakest on insider signal (6/20). Last earnings shrugged off (-1.6%); 53% above the 200DMA.
Late Extension
XLE
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$2,416,161 other insiders (3)
2 insider(s)
net purchase ratio +0.17
buy date unknown
70
conviction / 100
unchanged since 26 Aug
79.9
technical / 100
$10,000–$14,000
Probe · sized down 60% for campaign stage (Late Extension)
Regime clarity17.6
Sponsorship / positioning13.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)5.9
Cross-asset confirmation17.3
Last
96.52
Add above
98.39
Cut below
80.00
50DMA
82.74
200DMA
63.15
DINO — daily, 14 months
XLE — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.26
- OBV 50d slope +0.186 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 4.2% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- 2 distinct insiders buying (2 CEO, 1 Director)
- net purchase ratio +0.17 (2 buying vs 5 selling)
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $2,416,161 (2 CEO, 1 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLE
- XLE above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLE vs SPY 6m: +4.2 pts
- stock vs XLE RS (3m/6m avg): +57.5 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 98.39 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLE extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (82.74) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (80.00) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-08-11 17:45:34
- Market cap $17,159,697,408 · 20d avg dollar volume $237,367,395
Roughly balanced — buying is not corroborated.
| Open-market purchases | $2,416,161 |
| Open-market sales | $1,710,545 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 2 / 5 |
| Net purchase ratio | +0.17 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.17 |
No CFO purchase here — 3 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $2,416,161. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2026 | Myers FranklinCEO | 15,000 | $69.11 | $1,036,650 | +39.7% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Hardy Rhoman JDirector | 1,508 | $66.32 | $100,011 | +45.5% |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Myers FranklinCEO | 15,000 | $85.30 | $1,279,500 | +13.2% |
8 material events; 6 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 28 Jul: shrugged off (-1.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K | Material agreement | +0.3% | -6.0% | -5.8% | 1.1x | +6.6% | Absorbed |
| 30 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -1.0% | +2.7% | +1.0% | 1.1x | -10.3% | Rewarded |
| 28 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure | +0.9% | -1.6% | -1.9% | 1.5x | -1.2% | Shrugged off |
| 28 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.9% | -1.6% | -1.9% | 1.5x | -1.2% | Shrugged off |
| 08 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | +2.1% | +6.3% | +6.6% | 1.5x | +6.8% | Rewarded |
| 19 May 26 | 8-K | Material agreement | +0.2% | +2.2% | +2.8% | 0.9x | -5.2% | Rewarded |
| 13 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +1.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% | 1.1x | +2.5% | Neutral |
| 13 May 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +1.0% | -2.7% | -3.3% | 1.1x | +2.5% | Neutral |