GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
Stand aside — 50DMA is not rising. (+2 more)
Mature Trend
SPY
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
56
conviction / 100
+0.3 since 21 Aug
68.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity11.5
Sponsorship / positioning20.0
Volatility behaviour13.6
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation9.3
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.04 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
- Market cap unavailable — the size floor could not be verified. This is a data gap, not a verdict on the stock; re-run to retry the profile lookup.
Last
428.07
Add above
437.42
Cut below
397.87
50DMA
384.67
200DMA
414.09
GLD — daily, 14 months
SPY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA flat/falling
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.04 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.264 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV flat-to-rising through last pullback
- last pullback 18.2% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: SPY
- SPY above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- SPY vs SPY 6m: +0.0 pts
- stock vs SPY RS (3m/6m avg): -10.4 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 437.42 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- SPY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (384.67) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (397.87) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap — · 20d avg dollar volume $4,350,563,546
- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
2 material events; 0 taken well, 0 badly.
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.7% | +0.7% | -1.1% | 0.9x | +7.2% | Neutral |
| 05 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.3% | +0.9% | +0.1% | 0.6x | +3.5% | Neutral |