CXW
CoreCivic, Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (8 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Late Extension
XLI
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
60
conviction / 100
-2.0 since 19 Aug
74.4
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity18.5
Sponsorship / positioning12.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (8 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Last
33.14
Add above
34.86
Cut below
28.50
50DMA
31.15
200DMA
22.40
CXW — daily, 14 months
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.35
- OBV 50d slope +0.152 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 29% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 6.8% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 8 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLI
- XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLI vs SPY 6m: -10.7 pts
- stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +76.8 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 34.86 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (31.15) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (28.50) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $3,277,330,176 · 20d avg dollar volume $50,037,667
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $14,906,335 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 8 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
8 material events; 3 taken well, 3 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: faded (+3.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event | +5.3% | +2.3% | +2.3% | 1.5x | +1.8% | Faded |
| 06 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -7.7% | +3.2% | +3.4% | 2.5x | -2.0% | Rewarded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | +2.7% | +3.6% | +3.8% | 2.5x | +7.6% | Faded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Acquisition or disposition; Regulation FD disclosure | +2.7% | +3.6% | +3.8% | 2.5x | +7.6% | Faded |
| 13 Jul 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +0.3% | -1.4% | -0.7% | 0.5x | +1.3% | Neutral |
| 06 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Acquisition or disposition; Regulation FD disclosure | +4.1% | -2.0% | -2.8% | 1.8x | +3.3% | Shrugged off |
| 18 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.0% | +1.4% | +1.4% | 0.7x | +0.8% | Neutral |
| 07 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +2.0% | +3.1% | +3.4% | 3.7x | -2.6% | Rewarded |