DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Early Trend Expansion
XLP
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
61
conviction / 100
-0.8 since 21 Aug
76.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity16.0
Sponsorship / positioning11.8
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Last
136.12
Add above
138.91
Cut below
116.81
50DMA
124.22
200DMA
115.95
DLTR — daily, 14 months
XLP — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.17
- OBV 50d slope +0.146 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 8.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 1 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLP
- XLP above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLP vs SPY 6m: -13.2 pts
- stock vs XLP RS (3m/6m avg): +22.4 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 138.91 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLP extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (124.22) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (116.81) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $26,158,804,992 · 20d avg dollar volume $241,132,207
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $248,271,946 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 1 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.00 |
8 material events; 3 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 28 May: rewarded (+17.9%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.9% | 0.5x | -0.1% | Neutral |
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +1.8% | +2.4% | +2.5% | 0.9x | +0.7% | Neutral |
| 23 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | -0.1% | -0.5% | +1.0% | 0.8x | +6.6% | Neutral |
| 28 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure | +15.8% | +17.9% | +17.3% | 3.5x | -3.3% | Rewarded |
| 28 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +15.8% | +17.9% | +17.3% | 3.5x | -3.3% | Rewarded |
| 07 May 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -0.4% | +0.3% | +0.6% | 1.1x | -7.0% | Neutral |
| 23 Mar 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Agreement terminated; Material obligation created | +2.3% | +2.2% | +1.2% | 1.0x | -2.3% | Neutral |
| 16 Mar 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure | +4.0% | +6.4% | +5.4% | 1.8x | -5.3% | Rewarded |