TOST
Toast, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
67
conviction / 100
-2.0 since 19 Aug
84.2
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.0
Sponsorship / positioning12.4
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (8 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Last
36.64
Add above
37.00
Cut below
33.22
50DMA
30.34
200DMA
30.21
TOST — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.31
- OBV 50d slope +0.166 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 4.6% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 8 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +18.8 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +30.6 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 37.00 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (30.34) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (33.22) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $21,177,919,488 · 20d avg dollar volume $339,400,249
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $11,854,670 |
| Sales after option exercise | $7,294,884 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 8 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
5 material events; 1 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 04 Aug: rewarded (+3.1%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +3.8% | +2.9% | +3.1% | 2.1x | -2.1% | Faded |
| 04 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -1.5% | +3.1% | +1.3% | 1.7x | +3.2% | Rewarded |
| 15 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | +1.3% | +0.9% | -0.8% | 0.9x | -2.2% | Neutral |
| 08 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -14.2% | -14.7% | -15.6% | 3.8x | -8.0% | Punished |
| 07 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.8% | +3.8% | +4.1% | 1.8x | -21.5% | Neutral |