#1 NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Regime Shift
XLP
sector confirmed
$478,300 CFO$9,013,960 other insiders (3)
4 insider(s)
net purchase ratio +1.00
2d since buy
65
conviction / 100
+11.5 since 20 Aug
59.5
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity11.0
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour12.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)17.2
Cross-asset confirmation10.1
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Last
11.81
Add above
12.12
Cut below
10.93
50DMA
11.25
200DMA
10.86
NOMD — daily, 14 months
XLP — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.17
- OBV 50d slope +0.233 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 9.1% deep
- 1 wide down bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (2 CFO, 1 CEO, 1 Chair, 1 Director)
- net purchase ratio +1.00 (4 buying vs 0 selling)
- CFO purchases $478,300 (CFO)
- 2.9 bps of market cap
- grew the CFO's own position by 8%
- 2 days since the last CFO buy
- closest sector ETF: XLP
- XLP above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLP vs SPY 6m: -12.6 pts
- stock vs XLP RS (3m/6m avg): +5.3 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 12.12 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLP extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (11.25) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (10.93) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: Baldew Ruben — CFO
- 2 CFO purchase(s), $478,300 total; last filed 2026-08-21 16:30:18
- Market cap $1,650,933,760 · 20d avg dollar volume $22,524,305
Net buying across the insider group.
| Open-market purchases | $9,492,260 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 4 / 0 |
| Net purchase ratio | +1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +1.00 |
2 CFO purchase(s) worth $478,300, plus 3 by other insiders worth $9,013,960. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Gottesman NoamChair | 700,000 | $9.47 | $6,632,410 | +24.7% |
| 13 May 2026 | Ashken Ian G HDirector | 100,000 | $9.13 | $912,690 | +29.4% |
| 14 May 2026 | Baldew RubenCFO | 14,731 | $9.71 | $143,069 | +21.6% |
| 15 May 2026 | Brisby DominicCEO | 150,000 | $9.79 | $1,468,860 | +20.6% |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Baldew RubenCFO | 28,290 | $11.85 | $335,231 | -0.3% |
3 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 13 Aug: rewarded (+5.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -4.1% | +5.6% | +4.9% | 2.7x | -3.6% | Rewarded |
| 07 May 26 | Earnings | Earnings | +2.4% | +0.2% | +0.5% | 2.2x | -1.7% | Shrugged off |
| 26 Feb 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -8.6% | -8.7% | -8.1% | 6.4x | -8.3% | Punished |
