HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more)
Unclear
XLF
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$55,306,259 other insiders (3)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.63
buy date unknown
43
conviction / 100
+1.2 since 21 Aug
53.2
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity10.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour10.4
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.7
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.63 over the last 180 days (9 selling vs 1 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.14 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
Last
107.33
Add above
120.05
Cut below
83.68
50DMA
100.29
200DMA
96.08
HOOD — daily, 14 months
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.14 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.060 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 26.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster (3 Director)
- net purchase ratio -0.63 (1 buying vs 9 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $55,306,259 (3 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLF
- XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.4 pts
- stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): +30.3 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 120.05 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (100.29) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (83.68) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-06-09 16:05:26
- Market cap $96,453,550,080 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,757,707,244
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $55,306,259 |
| Open-market sales | $14,854,101 |
| Sales after option exercise | $226,014,715 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 9 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.63 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.58 |
No CFO purchase here — 3 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $55,306,259. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May 2026 | Malka MeyerDirector | 249,000 | $80.39 | $20,018,206 | +33.5% |
| 03 Jun 2026 | Malka MeyerDirector | 181,000 | $83.45 | $15,103,853 | +28.6% |
| 05 Jun 2026 | Malka MeyerDirector | 250,000 | $80.74 | $20,184,200 | +32.9% |
8 material events; 2 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 29 Jul: neutral (-3.1%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.2% | -3.6% | -5.3% | 1.3x | +4.7% | Neutral |
| 29 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.6% | -3.1% | -1.6% | 1.1x | +3.3% | Neutral |
| 26 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.3% | +5.6% | +6.3% | 1.2x | +19.1% | Rewarded |
| 25 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Material obligation created; Unregistered equity sale; Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event | +1.6% | -3.8% | -4.0% | 0.6x | +20.6% | Neutral |
| 23 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -3.8% | -2.3% | -0.9% | 1.2x | -2.9% | Neutral |
| 16 Jun 26 | 8-K | Costs from exit or disposal | +2.1% | -1.4% | -0.8% | 1.1x | +0.5% | Neutral |
| 03 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | -1.9% | -6.0% | -5.3% | 0.9x | +4.2% | Absorbed |
| 08 May 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.1% | +1.0% | +0.2% | 0.5x | +0.1% | Neutral |