LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Regime Shift
XLP
sector confirmed
$609,006 CFO$16,374,265 other insiders (4)
4 insider(s)
net purchase ratio +1.00
102d since buy
83
conviction / 100
+8.6 since 20 Aug
83.8
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity14.0
Sponsorship / positioning20.0
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)16.4
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Last
53.60
Add above
55.28
Cut below
51.19
50DMA
48.47
200DMA
46.70
LW — daily, 14 months
XLP — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.25
- OBV 50d slope +0.335 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 26% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV flat-to-rising through last pullback
- last pullback 4.7% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (2 CFO, 2 Director, 2 Unclassified)
- net purchase ratio +1.00 (4 buying vs 0 selling)
- CFO purchases $609,006 (CFO)
- 0.8 bps of market cap
- grew the CFO's own position by 13%
- 102 days since the last CFO buy
- closest sector ETF: XLP
- XLP above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLP vs SPY 6m: -13.0 pts
- stock vs XLP RS (3m/6m avg): +19.3 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 55.28 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLP extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (48.47) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (51.19) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: Gray James D — CFO
- 2 CFO purchase(s), $609,006 total; last filed 2026-05-11 18:36:44
- Market cap $7,369,096,704 · 20d avg dollar volume $74,054,876
Net buying across the insider group.
| Open-market purchases | $16,983,271 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 4 / 0 |
| Net purchase ratio | +1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +1.00 |
2 CFO purchase(s) worth $609,006, plus 4 by other insiders worth $16,374,265. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 2026 | Bensen Peter JDirector | 5,000 | $39.45 | $197,225 | +35.9% |
| 07 Apr 2026 | Jana Partners Management, LPUnclassified | 236,000 | $41.11 | $9,702,040 | +30.4% |
| 07 Apr 2026 | Prestage NormanDirector | 2,500 | $41.40 | $103,500 | +29.5% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Jana Partners Management, LPUnclassified | 150,000 | $42.48 | $6,371,500 | +26.2% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Gray James DCFO | 4,556 | $43.85 | $199,781 | +22.2% |
| 11 May 2026 | Gray James DCFO | 10,000 | $40.92 | $409,225 | +31.0% |
7 material events; 4 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 24 Jul: shrugged off (+0.8%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -1.1% | +0.8% | +0.7% | 2.9x | +6.0% | Shrugged off |
| 24 Jul 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -1.1% | +0.8% | +0.7% | 2.9x | +6.0% | Shrugged off |
| 15 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.1% | -2.0% | -2.4% | 0.8x | +5.4% | Neutral |
| 04 Jun 26 | 8-K | Costs from exit or disposal | +1.3% | +1.0% | +0.6% | 0.7x | +6.4% | Neutral |
| 26 May 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Agreement terminated; Material obligation created | -1.3% | -3.7% | -4.4% | 1.0x | -1.2% | Neutral |
| 01 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -1.8% | -8.9% | -9.7% | 1.5x | +8.1% | Absorbed |
| 01 Apr 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -1.8% | -8.9% | -9.7% | 1.5x | +8.1% | Absorbed |