#1 ALOY
REalloys Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling. (+1 more)
Mature Trend
XLB
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
43
conviction / 100
53.9
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.5
Sponsorship / positioning9.0
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation9.6
Stand aside — hard gate breached- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.01 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 64% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
ALOY — daily, 14 months
XLB — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.01 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope +0.049 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 227% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 64.3% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 3 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLB
- XLB above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLB vs SPY 6m: -11.9 pts
- stock vs XLB RS (3m/6m avg): +3.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 20.59 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLB extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (12.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (7.03) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $764,383,040 · 20d avg dollar volume $36,340,581
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $1,338,319 |
| Sales after option exercise | $1,384,486 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 3 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
Reaction to news8 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 13 Aug: rewarded (+3.3%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 13 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.0% | +3.3% | +2.6% | 0.8x | -14.4% | Rewarded |
| 13 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.0% | +3.3% | +2.6% | 0.8x | -14.4% | Rewarded |
| 30 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +1.5% | +1.5% | +0.8% | 0.7x | -10.7% | Neutral |
| 26 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Unregistered equity sale; Regulation FD disclosure | -2.7% | +3.0% | +3.7% | 3.3x | -13.2% | Neutral |
| 25 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Unregistered equity sale; Regulation FD disclosure | -0.5% | -14.5% | -14.7% | 1.4x | -6.8% | Punished |
| 22 May 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Regulation FD disclosure | -0.1% | +1.3% | +1.0% | 0.8x | +12.3% | Neutral |
| 20 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.0% | +0.2% | -0.8% | 0.7x | +8.8% | Neutral |
| 12 May 26 | 8-K/A | Material event (amended) | -0.7% | -2.8% | -2.6% | 0.7x | -2.0% | Neutral |
#2 USAR
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+3 more)
No Long Regime
XLB
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
28
conviction / 100
34.8
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity0.8
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour13.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation7.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
USAR — daily, 14 months
XLB — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.19
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope -0.146 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 72% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 57.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 1 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLB
- XLB above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLB vs SPY 6m: -11.9 pts
- stock vs XLB RS (3m/6m avg): -19.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 26.07 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLB extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (18.58) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (13.07) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $4,174,089,472 · 20d avg dollar volume $205,793,968
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $295,984 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 1 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
Reaction to news8 material events; 4 taken well, 3 badly; last earnings 10 Aug: shrugged off (-1.5%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 10 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | 1.6x | +1.3% | Shrugged off |
| 10 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% | 1.6x | +1.3% | Shrugged off |
| 07 Aug 26 | 8-K | Acquisition or disposition | +5.5% | +11.0% | +10.4% | 1.8x | +3.5% | Rewarded |
| 23 Jul 26 | 8-K | Unregistered equity sale; Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event | -2.7% | -4.3% | -3.1% | 0.8x | -3.2% | Punished |
| 20 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | -0.1% | -2.7% | -2.5% | 1.2x | -2.0% | Neutral |
| 16 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Other material event | -2.5% | -8.1% | -7.5% | 1.0x | -4.8% | Punished |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +2.9% | +4.6% | +3.6% | 1.2x | -16.9% | Rewarded |
| 15 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +6.0% | +4.7% | +2.9% | 0.8x | -0.6% | Faded |
#3 MP
MP Materials Corp.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+4 more)
No Long Regime
XLB
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$1,505,540 other insiders (2)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.96
buy date unknown
23
conviction / 100
unchanged since 11 Aug
28.7
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity0.0
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation7.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.96 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 1 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.12 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
MP — daily, 14 months
XLB — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.12 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope -0.092 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 51% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 47.6% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster (2 COO)
- net purchase ratio -0.96 (1 buying vs 3 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $1,505,540 (2 COO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLB
- XLB above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLB vs SPY 6m: -11.9 pts
- stock vs XLB RS (3m/6m avg): -10.0 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 57.46 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLB extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (51.61) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (38.10) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-06-10 09:01:46
- Market cap $9,560,493,056 · 20d avg dollar volume $357,981,118
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $1,505,540 |
| Open-market sales | $83,488,084 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 3 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.96 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -0.96 |
Purchase tapeNo CFO purchase here — 2 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $1,505,540. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|
| 20 May 2026 | Rosenthal Michael StuartCOO | 17,000 | $56.62 | $962,540 | -5.2% |
| 09 Jun 2026 | Rosenthal Michael StuartCOO | 10,000 | $54.30 | $543,000 | -1.1% |
Reaction to news7 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 06 Aug: neutral (-0.9%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 07 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +6.7% | +7.6% | +7.0% | 2.0x | +14.9% | Neutral |
| 06 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -1.3% | -0.9% | -0.7% | 1.3x | +17.2% | Neutral |
| 10 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | -0.5% | -1.6% | +0.0% | 0.9x | +13.8% | Neutral |
| 08 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +6.6% | -2.5% | -3.3% | 2.0x | -9.1% | Neutral |
| 07 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.8% | -4.8% | -4.5% | 1.5x | -12.8% | Punished |
| 26 Feb 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.6% | +2.3% | +2.8% | 0.9x | -2.5% | Rewarded |
| 26 Feb 26 | 10-K | Annual report | +1.6% | +2.3% | +2.8% | 0.9x | -2.5% | Rewarded |
