CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more)
Unclear
XLF
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
37
conviction / 100
-2.0 since 25 Aug
44.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity5.0
Sponsorship / positioning12.5
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation8.7
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.03 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 54% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
Last
94.24
Add above
118.85
Cut below
60.35
50DMA
70.28
200DMA
84.92
CRCL — daily, 14 months
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.03 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.167 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 35% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 54.2% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLF
- XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.3 pts
- stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): -14.7 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 118.85 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (70.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (60.35) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $25,689,268,224 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,117,274,708
- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
8 material events; 5 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: shrugged off (+0.0%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -2.0% | +0.0% | +0.2% | 1.6x | +12.6% | Shrugged off |
| 05 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -2.0% | +0.0% | +0.2% | 1.6x | +12.6% | Shrugged off |
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +3.0% | +4.3% | +4.4% | 1.2x | +2.4% | Faded |
| 12 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.8% | -5.8% | -6.3% | 0.9x | +2.7% | Punished |
| 18 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | -1.7% | -2.3% | -2.2% | 0.7x | -6.5% | Neutral |
| 11 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | +4.6% | +15.9% | +15.7% | 3.7x | -15.5% | Rewarded |
| 11 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +4.6% | +15.9% | +15.7% | 3.7x | -15.5% | Rewarded |
| 17 Mar 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -1.4% | +5.1% | +4.9% | 1.1x | -23.5% | Rewarded |