PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
68
conviction / 100
+8.0 since 26 Aug
85.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity14.2
Sponsorship / positioning13.8
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (5 selling vs 0 buying). No insider purchase offsets the selling; this is one-way selling.
Last
126.61
Add above
127.23
Cut below
118.48
50DMA
112.43
200DMA
101.60
PAYX — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.26
- OBV 50d slope +0.212 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 5.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 5 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +21.0 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +18.7 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 127.23 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (112.43) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (118.48) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $45,033,005,056 · 20d avg dollar volume $276,368,659
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $3,775,788 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 5 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.00 |
5 material events; 2 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 24 Jun: shrugged off (-1.7%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -1.2% | -2.8% | -3.6% | 0.8x | +7.3% | Neutral |
| 17 Jul 26 | 10-K | Annual report | +0.4% | -0.3% | +0.7% | 1.1x | -0.7% | Neutral |
| 24 Jun 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.8% | -1.7% | -1.7% | 1.9x | +6.7% | Shrugged off |
| 26 Mar 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -0.3% | +0.2% | +2.0% | 1.2x | -2.0% | Neutral |
| 25 Mar 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +5.1% | +3.0% | +2.5% | 1.8x | -2.6% | Rewarded |