BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+4 more)
No Long Regime
XLY
sector not confirmed
no CFO purchase$25,691,200 other insiders (3)
2 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.48
buy date unknown
32
conviction / 100
unchanged since 27 Aug
35.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity5.5
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)4.0
Cross-asset confirmation0.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.48 over the last 180 days (5 selling vs 2 buying). Other insiders bought (1 CEO, 2 Director), but the group remains net sellers; there is no CFO purchase to offset the selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.10 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 34% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
- Sector ETF is breaking down — no new longs in this sector.
Last
115.54
Add above
130.62
Cut below
111.66
50DMA
114.84
200DMA
135.85
BABA — daily, 14 months
XLY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.10 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.222 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 34.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- 2 distinct insiders buying (1 CEO, 2 Director)
- net purchase ratio -0.48 (2 buying vs 5 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $25,691,200 (1 CEO, 2 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLY
- XLY BELOW its 200DMA — sector breaking down
- XLY vs SPY 6m: -12.9 pts
- stock vs XLY RS (3m/6m avg): -12.0 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 130.62 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (114.84) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (111.66) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-08-25 06:01:33
- Market cap $287,217,385,472 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,641,813,177
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $25,691,200 |
| Open-market sales | $68,360,495 |
| Sales after option exercise | $3,923,475 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 2 / 5 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.48 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -0.45 |
No CFO purchase here — 3 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $25,691,200. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
ADS-adjusted comparison: BABA Form 4 prices are for ordinary shares; one NYSE-listed BABA ADS represents eight ordinary shares. The percentage compares the current ADS quote with the 8× ADS-equivalent purchase price.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2026 | Tsai Joseph CDirector | 720,000 | $14.29 | $10,288,800 | +1.1% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Wu YongmingCEO | 350,000 | $14.24 | $4,984,000 | +1.4% |
| 25 Aug 2026 | Tsai Joseph CDirector | 720,000 | $14.47 | $10,418,400 | -0.2% |
3 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 20 Aug: shrugged off (+1.3%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -4.2% | +1.3% | +2.1% | 3.0x | -11.5% | Shrugged off |
| 13 May 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -2.0% | +8.2% | +7.6% | 4.0x | -7.8% | Rewarded |
| 19 Mar 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -8.5% | -7.1% | -6.8% | 3.3x | +0.4% | Punished |