🔗 Copy link⇓ Download

RIO

Requested read · Wednesday 26 August 2026, 12:43 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.04 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.
RIO
Rio Tinto Plc
Stand aside — 50DMA is not rising. (+1 more)
Mature Trend XLB sector confirmed 1 insider(s) buy date unknown
43
conviction / 100
-2.8 since 10 Aug
51.4
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity11.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour12.6
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation10.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 50DMA is not rising.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.03 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
106.81
Add above
109.80
Cut below
95.39
50DMA
94.58
200DMA
89.20
RIO daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
RIO — daily, 14 months
XLB sector ETF daily chart
XLB — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA flat/falling
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.03 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope -0.040 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 20.7% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio unavailable
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLB
  • XLB above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLB vs SPY 6m: -10.8 pts
  • stock vs XLB RS (3m/6m avg): +4.9 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 109.80 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLB extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (94.58) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (95.39) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $173,711,425,536 · 20d avg dollar volume $248,241,761
Net insider activity
  • No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news
  • No material filings found in the window.