SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Unclear
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
68
conviction / 100
+4.7 since 25 Aug
82.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity12.4
Sponsorship / positioning13.2
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Last
153.88
Add above
158.87
Cut below
111.06
50DMA
128.28
200DMA
131.49
SHOP — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.17
- OBV 50d slope +0.192 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 7.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +17.8 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +25.1 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 158.87 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (128.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (111.06) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $197,988,777,984 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,523,844,319
- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
8 material events; 0 taken well, 5 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: faded (+17.0%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +21.7% | +17.0% | +17.2% | 4.7x | +4.3% | Faded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +21.7% | +17.0% | +17.2% | 4.7x | +4.3% | Faded |
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -2.1% | -1.8% | -1.7% | 0.8x | +2.6% | Neutral |
| 16 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -0.5% | +0.7% | +1.3% | 0.6x | +0.8% | Neutral |
| 02 Jun 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -3.0% | -5.7% | -5.9% | 0.6x | -5.6% | Punished |
| 08 May 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -1.2% | -1.2% | -2.0% | 1.3x | -9.2% | Neutral |
| 05 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -9.0% | -15.6% | -16.4% | 5.3x | -7.2% | Punished |
| 05 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -9.0% | -15.6% | -16.4% | 5.3x | -7.2% | Punished |