BNTX
BioNTech SE
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLV
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
43
conviction / 100
-1.4 since 21 Aug
53.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity12.8
Sponsorship / positioning7.8
Volatility behaviour11.6
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation10.7
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Last
115.47
Add above
124.00
Cut below
90.52
50DMA
94.22
200DMA
97.68
BNTX — daily, 14 months
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.19
- OBV 50d slope +0.037 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- 1 day(s) above 10x median volume (peak 10x) — OBV distorted by an event, sponsorship read unreliable
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 23.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 1 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLV
- XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLV vs SPY 6m: +0.2 pts
- stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): -0.8 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 124.00 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (94.22) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (90.52) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $29,006,569,472 · 20d avg dollar volume $171,773,208
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $5,527,960 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 1 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
3 material events; 2 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 04 Aug: shrugged off (-1.0%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -3.5% | -1.0% | -2.8% | 2.5x | +1.6% | Shrugged off |
| 05 May 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -3.6% | -3.9% | -4.7% | 1.7x | -1.9% | Neutral |
| 10 Mar 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -18.9% | -17.9% | -17.7% | 20.0x | +13.1% | Absorbed |