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RSG

Requested read · Monday 24 August 2026, 21:26 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.04 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift XLI sector confirmed no CFO purchase$637,071,149 other insiders (7) 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 buy date unknown
50
conviction / 100
+0.9 since 21 Aug
55.9
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity9.0
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)5.0
Cross-asset confirmation8.7
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.14 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
Last
223.08
Add above
228.22
Cut below
204.80
50DMA
215.01
200DMA
213.37
RSG daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
RSG — daily, 14 months
XLI sector ETF daily chart
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • no HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.14 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope -0.135 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 7.8% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster (7 Unclassified)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (1 buying vs 2 selling)
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • other insiders bought $637,071,149 (7 Unclassified) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLI
  • XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLI vs SPY 6m: -9.6 pts
  • stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +0.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 228.22 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (215.01) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (204.80) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-08-24 16:15:23
  • Market cap $68,309,995,520 · 20d avg dollar volume $305,906,082
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$637,071,149
Open-market sales$458,181
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers1 / 2
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
No CFO purchase here — 7 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $637,071,149. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
11 May 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified499,150$201.40$100,528,322+10.8%
14 May 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified488,000$208.69$101,838,396+6.9%
10 Aug 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified501,664$215.57$108,145,762+3.5%
12 Aug 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified362,960$215.81$78,329,177+3.4%
14 Aug 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified356,050$215.26$76,643,506+3.6%
18 Aug 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified378,969$220.08$83,402,937+1.4%
20 Aug 2026Cascade Investment, L.L.C.Unclassified400,286$220.30$88,183,049+1.3%
Reaction to news
7 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 06 Aug: neutral (+1.2%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
07 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report+2.0%+2.4%+1.8%1.4x+0.1%Faded
06 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure+1.2%+1.2%+1.4%1.1x+2.7%Neutral
30 Jul 268-KOther material event-1.8%-3.5%-5.1%1.7x-0.8%Neutral
24 Jun 268-KOther material event+0.4%+2.1%+2.2%0.9x+0.5%Rewarded
11 May 268-KMaterial event-0.2%-1.1%-1.4%1.3x+8.5%Neutral
08 May 2610-QQuarterly report+1.4%-0.8%-1.6%1.3x+4.1%Neutral
07 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event-0.4%+0.9%+1.2%1.6x+3.5%Shrugged off