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NBIS

Requested read · Monday 24 August 2026, 20:19 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.04 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.
NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
Stand aside — 50DMA is not rising. (+3 more)
Late Extension XLC sector not confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
31
conviction / 100
-11.5 since 21 Aug
38.2
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity11.5
Sponsorship / positioning0.1
Volatility behaviour13.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation6.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 50DMA is not rising.
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (9 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.02 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 48% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
  • Sector ETF is breaking down — no new longs in this sector.
Last
210.91
Add above
280.83
Cut below
148.22
50DMA
222.87
200DMA
149.75
NBIS daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
NBIS — daily, 14 months
XLC sector ETF daily chart
XLC — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA flat/falling
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.02 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope -0.018 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 49% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
  • OBV DIVERGENCE during acceleration
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 48.3% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 9 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLC
  • XLC BELOW its 200DMA — sector breaking down
  • XLC vs SPY 6m: -14.5 pts
  • stock vs XLC RS (3m/6m avg): +56.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 280.83 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLC extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (222.87) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (148.22) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $53,549,670,400 · 20d avg dollar volume $6,246,681,901
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$69,856,915
Sales after option exercise$101,620,000
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 9
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Reaction to news
2 material events; 1 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 12 Aug: rewarded (+34.1%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
12 Aug 26EarningsEarnings+17.0%+34.1%+33.9%2.7x-13.6%Rewarded
13 May 26EarningsEarnings+13.8%+15.7%+15.2%2.5x-7.5%Neutral