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SKWD, ABT, UBER, FTV, NOW, NP…

Requested read · Monday 24 August 2026, 01:26 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.06 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.

Ranked

highest conviction first · click a name for its charts
1 SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (17/20); weakest on insider signal (13/20). Last earnings neutral (+1.1%); 4 insiders buying. 72 $25,000–$35,000 2 ABT Abbott Laboratories Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. 69 — 3 UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more) 56 — 4 FTV Fortive Corporation Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling. (+1 more) 55 — 5 NOW ServiceNow, Inc. Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more) 54 — 6 NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more) 52 — 7 SBSW D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limite Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more) 47 —
#1 SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro
Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (17/20); weakest on insider signal (13/20). Last earnings neutral (+1.1%); 4 insiders buying.
Regime Shift XLF sector confirmed $9,320 CFO$1,518,395 other insiders (4) 4 insider(s) net purchase ratio +0.53 178d since buy
72
conviction / 100
73.8
technical / 100
$25,000–$35,000
Standard
Regime clarity17.0
Sponsorship / positioning13.8
Volatility behaviour14.9
Catalyst alignment (insider)12.8
Cross-asset confirmation13.3
Last
56.89
Add above
65.69
Cut below
56.77
50DMA
58.30
200DMA
49.35
SKWD daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
SKWD — daily, 14 months
XLF sector ETF daily chart
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.15
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.214 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 14.9% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 1 CEO, 3 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +0.53 (4 buying vs 2 selling)
  • CFO purchases $9,320 (CFO - Apollo)
  • 0.0 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 3%
  • 178 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLF
  • XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.2 pts
  • stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): +10.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 65.69 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (58.30) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (56.77) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: McHarg Taryn Leonie — CFO - Apollo
  • 1 CFO purchase(s), $9,320 total; last filed 2026-03-03 13:09:25
  • Market cap $2,306,494,976 · 20d avg dollar volume $31,139,985
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$1,527,715
Open-market sales$430,963
Sales after option exercise$34,299
Distinct buyers / sellers4 / 2
Net purchase ratio+0.53
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+0.56
Purchase tape
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $9,320, plus 4 by other insiders worth $1,518,395. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
27 Feb 2026Kuczinski Anthony JDirector5,000$47.89$239,465+18.8%
27 Feb 2026McHarg Taryn LeonieCFO200$46.60$9,320+22.1%
27 Feb 2026Robinson Andrew SCEO22,100$46.76$1,033,370+21.7%
02 Mar 2026Peirce Christopher LockeDirector3,200$47.30$151,360+20.3%
21 May 2026Kuczinski Anthony JDirector2,000$47.10$94,200+20.8%
Reaction to news
8 material events; 0 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 04 Aug: neutral (+1.1%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
20 Aug 268-KDirector or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure-2.6%-1.0%-0.1%1.2x—Neutral
07 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report-0.7%-3.0%-3.6%0.9x-6.1%Neutral
04 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-0.2%+1.1%-0.7%0.8x+0.1%Neutral
15 Jul 268-KOther material event-0.1%-2.6%-2.9%0.9x+1.9%Neutral
11 May 2610-QQuarterly report-0.9%-1.8%-2.0%1.1x+4.4%Neutral
11 May 268-KMaterial event-0.9%-1.8%-2.0%1.1x+4.4%Neutral
06 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+0.0%-0.2%-1.6%1.3x+0.4%Neutral
17 Mar 268-K/AMaterial event (amended)+0.8%+0.8%+0.5%0.8x-5.8%Neutral
#2 ABT
Abbott Laboratories
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Regime Shift XLV sector confirmed $201,300 CFO$1,100,177 other insiders (2) 3 insider(s) net purchase ratio +0.07 123d since buy
69
conviction / 100
unchanged since 22 Aug
73.5
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.0
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour17.4
Catalyst alignment (insider)9.9
Cross-asset confirmation12.4
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Last
116.64
Add above
127.10
Cut below
87.64
50DMA
99.65
200DMA
105.88
ABT daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
ABT — daily, 14 months
XLV sector ETF daily chart
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.38
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.346 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 18.7% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 3 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 2 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +0.07 (3 buying vs 6 selling)
  • CFO purchases $201,300 (EVP, CFO)
  • 0.0 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 3%
  • 123 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLV
  • XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLV vs SPY 6m: +0.6 pts
  • stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +4.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 127.10 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (99.65) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (87.64) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Boudreau Philip P — EVP, CFO
  • 1 CFO purchase(s), $201,300 total; last filed 2026-04-27 17:34:47
  • Market cap $203,165,073,408 · 20d avg dollar volume $925,493,206
Net insider activity
Roughly balanced — buying is not corroborated.
Open-market purchases$1,301,477
Open-market sales$1,127,827
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers3 / 6
Net purchase ratio+0.07
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+0.07
Purchase tape
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $201,300, plus 2 by other insiders worth $1,100,177. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
23 Apr 2026Boudreau Philip PCFO2,200$91.50$201,300+27.5%
27 Apr 2026Starks Daniel JDirector10,000$92.65$926,537+25.9%
07 May 2026Stratton John GDirector2,000$86.82$173,640+34.3%
Reaction to news
8 material events; 0 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 16 Jul: neutral (+10.7%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
20 Aug 268-KRegulation FD disclosure; Other material event-0.4%-0.3%+0.6%0.7x—Neutral
28 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+1.5%+2.7%+2.4%1.0x-1.7%Faded
16 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+6.7%+10.7%+11.3%2.4x+1.9%Neutral
29 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report-0.2%-2.7%-2.7%0.7x-5.5%Neutral
27 Apr 268-KDirector or officer change+0.5%+1.8%+1.7%1.3x-5.7%Neutral
17 Apr 268-KOther material event+0.2%+1.4%+0.2%1.3x-5.9%Neutral
16 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-4.4%-6.0%-6.2%2.1x-3.1%Punished
23 Mar 268-KOther material event+1.5%-0.6%-1.6%0.7x-2.8%Neutral
#3 UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift XLK sector confirmed 1 insider(s) buy date unknown
56
conviction / 100
-7.2 since 21 Aug
68.1
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity12.0
Sponsorship / positioning14.3
Volatility behaviour14.2
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.09 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
78.80
Add above
78.99
Cut below
66.74
50DMA
72.92
200DMA
77.10
UBER daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
UBER — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.09 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.025 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV flat-to-rising through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 16.7% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio unavailable
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +18.8 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): -9.7 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 78.99 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (72.92) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (66.74) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $160,953,745,408 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,483,103,429
Net insider activity
  • No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news
8 material events; 5 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: absorbed (-5.3%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
07 Aug 268-KMaterial agreement; Agreement terminated; Material obligation created+1.2%+6.5%+5.8%1.8x+1.2%Rewarded
05 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-4.2%-5.3%-5.1%3.1x+10.5%Absorbed
05 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report-4.2%-5.3%-5.1%3.1x+10.5%Absorbed
16 Jul 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created; Regulation FD disclosure+1.4%+1.9%+2.4%0.9x-6.9%Neutral
11 May 268-KDirector or officer change+0.1%+0.9%+0.7%1.1x-1.4%Neutral
08 May 268-KMaterial event+0.4%-1.7%-2.5%1.0x-0.5%Neutral
06 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+6.2%+8.5%+7.1%2.4x-5.6%Rewarded
06 May 2610-QQuarterly report+6.2%+8.5%+7.1%2.4x-5.6%Rewarded
#4 FTV
Fortive Corporation
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling. (+1 more)
Early Trend Expansion XLK sector confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
55
conviction / 100
+6.0 since 21 Aug
68.2
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity14.0
Sponsorship / positioning10.1
Volatility behaviour16.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.00 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
60.08
Add above
62.62
Cut below
58.26
50DMA
61.06
200DMA
57.61
FTV daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
FTV — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • no HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.00 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.086 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 8.8% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 1 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +18.8 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): -14.0 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 62.62 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (61.06) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (58.26) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $18,316,050,432 · 20d avg dollar volume $161,818,951
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$533,493
Sales after option exercise$2,891,941
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 1
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Reaction to news
8 material events; 2 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 29 Jul: absorbed (-7.1%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
29 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-2.9%-7.1%-5.6%2.7x+3.0%Absorbed
29 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report-2.9%-7.1%-5.6%2.7x+3.0%Absorbed
11 Jun 268-KMaterial event+0.4%-0.4%-2.1%0.9x+2.0%Neutral
14 May 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created; Other material event+0.7%-0.8%-1.6%1.1x+0.2%Neutral
30 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+0.6%-3.2%-4.2%2.6x+1.9%Neutral
30 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report+0.6%-3.2%-4.2%2.6x+1.9%Neutral
20 Mar 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created-0.1%-0.6%+0.8%1.3x-2.4%Neutral
25 Feb 2610-KAnnual report+0.2%+1.1%+0.3%0.6x-0.5%Neutral
#5 NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift XLK sector confirmed no CFO purchase$3,000,058 other insiders (1) 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -0.04 buy date unknown
54
conviction / 100
+1.6 since 21 Aug
65.9
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity10.5
Sponsorship / positioning10.9
Volatility behaviour13.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.8
Cross-asset confirmation18.3
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.12 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
Last
128.48
Add above
139.20
Cut below
91.53
50DMA
108.92
200DMA
120.31
NOW daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
NOW — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.12 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.113 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 34.1% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster (1 CEO)
  • net purchase ratio -0.04 (1 buying vs 5 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • other insiders bought $3,000,058 (1 CEO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +18.8 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +9.5 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 139.20 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (108.92) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (91.53) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-03-02 16:11:03
  • Market cap $132,830,584,832 · 20d avg dollar volume $2,548,853,938
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$3,000,058
Open-market sales$3,164,695
Sales after option exercise$103,238
Distinct buyers / sellers1 / 5
Net purchase ratio-0.04
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-0.03
Purchase tape
No CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $3,000,058. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
27 Feb 2026McDermott William RCEO28,682$104.60$3,000,058+22.8%
Reaction to news
7 material events; 4 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 22 Jul: absorbed (-6.5%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
23 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+4.8%-3.7%-2.5%2.3x+19.7%Neutral
22 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-1.2%-6.5%-6.4%2.1x+21.3%Absorbed
22 May 268-KDirector or officer change+2.5%+2.4%+2.1%0.8x+33.0%Neutral
15 May 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created; Other material event+1.8%+5.0%+6.3%1.3x+7.4%Rewarded
23 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report-15.3%-17.7%-17.4%3.7x+4.2%Absorbed
22 Apr 268-K · earningsMaterial agreement; Results of operations (earnings); Material obligation created+1.4%+2.9%+1.9%1.7x-13.8%Rewarded
01 Apr 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created+0.7%-0.5%-1.2%0.7x-13.7%Neutral
#6 NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more)
Unclear XLF sector confirmed no CFO purchase$935,345 other insiders (1) 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
52
conviction / 100
65.3
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity10.5
Sponsorship / positioning10.5
Volatility behaviour16.4
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.8
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 1 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
33.36
Add above
33.54
Cut below
28.20
50DMA
31.10
200DMA
26.60
NP daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
NP — daily, 14 months
XLF sector ETF daily chart
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.11 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.243 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • 1 day(s) above 10x median volume (peak 12x) — OBV distorted by an event, sponsorship read unreliable
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 12.4% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster (1 CEO)
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (1 buying vs 3 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • other insiders bought $935,345 (1 CEO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLF
  • XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.2 pts
  • stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): +28.7 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 33.54 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (31.10) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (28.20) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-03-13 13:37:09
  • Market cap $4,578,096,128 · 20d avg dollar volume $20,996,623
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$935,345
Open-market sales$418,198,590
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers1 / 3
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Purchase tape
No CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $935,345. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
13 Mar 2026Burgess Trevor RCEO50,000$18.71$935,345+78.3%
Reaction to news
6 material events; 0 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 22 Apr: neutral (+0.8%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
27 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+3.0%+1.9%+1.9%0.9x+2.6%Neutral
21 Jul 268-KMaterial event-1.5%-4.0%-4.8%0.8x+5.1%Neutral
01 Jun 268-KMaterial event-2.0%-6.5%-6.8%0.9x-6.2%Punished
29 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report-0.6%-2.7%-2.7%0.5x-3.6%Neutral
22 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event+0.8%+0.8%-0.2%1.1x-7.7%Neutral
26 Feb 2610-KAnnual report-0.5%+0.5%+1.1%0.8x-0.9%Neutral
#7 SBSW
D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limite
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+2 more)
Unclear XLB sector confirmed $2,273,265 CFO$370,032 other insiders (5) 5 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 59d since buy
47
conviction / 100
+8.0 since 21 Aug
36.4
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity5.0
Sponsorship / positioning8.1
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)18.0
Cross-asset confirmation7.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • 50DMA is not rising.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.04 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 42% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
Last
12.58
Add above
14.10
Cut below
8.00
50DMA
9.40
200DMA
12.43
SBSW daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
SBSW — daily, 14 months
XLB sector ETF daily chart
XLB — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA flat/falling
  • no HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.04 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.019 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 42.2% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 5 distinct insiders buying (3 CFO, 1 Other C-suite, 1 Officer, 3 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (5 buying vs 0 selling)
  • CFO purchases $2,273,265 (CFO)
  • 2.5 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 10%
  • 59 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLB
  • XLB above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLB vs SPY 6m: -9.7 pts
  • stock vs XLB RS (3m/6m avg): -10.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 14.10 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLB extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (9.40) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (8.00) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Keyter Charl — CFO
  • 3 CFO purchase(s), $2,273,265 total; last filed 2026-06-30 07:52:19
  • Market cap $9,099,998,208 · 20d avg dollar volume $52,707,065
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$2,643,297
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers5 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
3 CFO purchase(s) worth $2,273,265, plus 5 by other insiders worth $370,032. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
16 Mar 2026Maphai Thabane VincentDirector12,000$13.34$160,080-5.7%
20 Mar 2026Keyter CharlCFO148,819$11.63$1,730,765+8.2%
23 Mar 2026Keyter CharlCFO35,000$2.70$94,500+365.9%
24 Mar 2026Menell Richard PeterDirector2,500$11.43$28,575+10.1%
30 Mar 2026Carter Charles EdwardOther C-suite10,000$11.40$114,000+10.4%
31 Mar 2026Nkosi Themba GeorgeOfficer11,865$2.91$34,527+332.3%
26 Jun 2026Keyter CharlCFO200,000$2.24$448,000+461.6%
30 Jun 2026Menell Richard PeterDirector15,000$2.19$32,850+474.4%
Reaction to news
  • No material filings found in the window.