IBIT
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+3 more)
Regime Shift
SPY
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
38
conviction / 100
44.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity6.5
Sponsorship / positioning9.1
Volatility behaviour9.6
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation10.5
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.03 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 28% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
- Market cap unavailable — the size floor could not be verified. This is a data gap, not a verdict on the stock; re-run to retry the profile lookup.
Last
43.68
Add above
44.24
Cut below
35.37
50DMA
36.28
200DMA
43.00
IBIT — daily, 14 months
SPY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.03 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.052 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 28.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: SPY
- SPY above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- SPY vs SPY 6m: +0.0 pts
- stock vs SPY RS (3m/6m avg): -1.0 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 44.24 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- SPY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (36.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (35.37) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap — · 20d avg dollar volume $1,789,233,359
- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
4 material events; 0 taken well, 0 badly.
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -1.1% | -0.7% | -0.5% | 0.8x | -1.7% | Neutral |
| 07 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -0.7% | -1.7% | -1.4% | 0.8x | +1.7% | Neutral |
| 31 Mar 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.4% | +2.0% | -0.9% | 0.8x | +5.2% | Neutral |
| 27 Feb 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -2.0% | -2.8% | -2.3% | 0.6x | +3.8% | Neutral |