GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLF
sector confirmed
$173,650 CFO$12,291,123 other insiders (8)
8 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.36
85d since buy
73
conviction / 100
+12.8 since 20 Aug
77.4
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity13.2
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour19.9
Catalyst alignment (insider)11.5
Cross-asset confirmation14.8
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.36 over the last 180 days (4 selling vs 8 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
Last
72.52
Add above
77.82
Cut below
48.19
50DMA
55.52
200DMA
55.56
GSHD — daily, 14 months
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.28
- OBV 50d slope +0.486 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 12.3% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- 8 filers collapse to 7 independent buyer(s) — same household or related accounts count once
- 1 10% holder(s) excluded from the cluster — a fund adding to a position is a portfolio decision, not an operator spending their own money (still counted in the net purchase ratio)
- cluster: 7 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 1 CEO, 1 COO, 1 Officer, 2 Director, 1 10% owner, 2 Unclassified)
- net purchase ratio -0.36 (8 buying vs 4 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- CFO purchases $173,650 (CFO)
- 0.7 bps of market cap
- a NEW position for the CFO
- 85 days since the last CFO buy
- closest sector ETF: XLF
- XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.2 pts
- stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): +55.9 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 77.82 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (55.52) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (48.19) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: Martin John Arthur — CFO
- 1 CFO purchase(s), $173,650 total; last filed 2026-05-29 16:08:39
- Market cap $2,591,747,840 · 20d avg dollar volume $31,354,617
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $12,464,773 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $26,675,522 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 8 / 4 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.36 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +1.00 |
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $173,650, plus 8 by other insiders worth $12,291,123. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | Goldberg LouisDirector | 5,575 | $44.85 | $250,039 | +61.7% |
| 14 May 2026 | Miller MarkCEO | 5,000 | $36.89 | $184,450 | +96.6% |
| 15 May 2026 | Jones Mark E. Jr.COO | 2,650 | $37.50 | $99,375 | +93.4% |
| 18 May 2026 | Thornthwaite Martin EllisOfficer | 5,000 | $41.50 | $207,500 | +74.7% |
| 28 May 2026 | Martin John ArthurCFO | 5,000 | $34.73 | $173,650 | +108.8% |
| 29 May 2026 | Langston Patrick Ryan10% owner | 2,800 | $35.56 | $99,568 | +103.9% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | Durable Capital Partners LPUnclassified | 153,723 | $59.22 | $9,104,027 | +22.5% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Durable Capital Partners LPUnclassified | 36,256 | $61.92 | $2,245,140 | +17.1% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Lane Peter R.Director | 1,600 | $63.14 | $101,024 | +14.9% |
8 material events; 5 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 22 Jul: absorbed (-4.4%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.9% | +4.9% | +6.1% | 1.7x | +18.5% | Rewarded |
| 22 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Director or officer change | +1.0% | -4.4% | -4.3% | 0.7x | +37.6% | Absorbed |
| 14 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material agreement | -2.5% | -8.3% | -8.7% | 0.4x | +6.9% | Absorbed |
| 04 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.5% | 0.6x | -7.9% | Neutral |
| 23 Apr 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +17.1% | +11.4% | +11.8% | 2.5x | -11.8% | Faded |
| 22 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Director or officer change; Other material event | +0.0% | +2.0% | +1.0% | 1.2x | +3.6% | Rewarded |
| 08 Apr 26 | 8-K/A | Director or officer change | +0.5% | +2.2% | -0.4% | 0.7x | -9.7% | Rewarded |
| 31 Mar 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Other material event | -0.2% | +0.9% | -2.1% | 1.2x | +7.0% | Neutral |