TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+4 more)
No Long Regime
XLY
sector not confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
24
conviction / 100
+3.9 since 21 Aug
30.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity0.0
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour13.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation4.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (2 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.13 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
Last
363.81
Add above
432.86
Cut below
298.32
50DMA
365.88
200DMA
403.33
TSLA — daily, 14 months
XLY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.13 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.132 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 33.0% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 2 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLY
- XLY above a flat 200DMA (stable)
- XLY vs SPY 6m: -10.8 pts
- stock vs XLY RS (3m/6m avg): -12.6 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 432.86 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (365.88) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (298.32) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $1,437,082,320,896 · 20d avg dollar volume $11,062,235,685
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $0 |
| Sales after option exercise | $33,249,093 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 2 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.00 |
6 material events; 1 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 22 Jul: neutral (-1.3%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -8.8% | -14.5% | -13.3% | 2.9x | -3.4% | Punished |
| 22 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.9% | -1.3% | -1.2% | 0.8x | -20.2% | Neutral |
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.6% | -7.5% | -7.4% | 1.6x | +3.6% | Absorbed |
| 23 Apr 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -3.2% | -3.6% | -3.2% | 1.4x | +2.1% | Neutral |
| 22 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.3% | +0.3% | -0.7% | 0.9x | -3.8% | Neutral |
| 02 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -4.5% | -5.4% | -5.5% | 1.3x | -3.2% | Punished |