TEM
Tempus AI, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLV
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
41
conviction / 100
51.1
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity10.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.4
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (9 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Last
66.65
Add above
76.33
Cut below
41.55
50DMA
52.20
200DMA
56.86
TEM — daily, 14 months
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.15
- OBV 50d slope -0.027 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 36% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 32.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 9 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLV
- XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLV vs SPY 6m: -1.4 pts
- stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +14.1 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 76.33 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (52.20) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (41.55) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $12,025,976,832 · 20d avg dollar volume $338,452,419
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $52,914,162 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 9 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
8 material events; 2 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 30 Jul: rewarded (+6.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure | +1.1% | +6.6% | +4.9% | 1.5x | +4.1% | Rewarded |
| 30 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.1% | +6.6% | +4.9% | 1.5x | +4.1% | Rewarded |
| 20 Jul 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -5.1% | -7.7% | -7.6% | 1.8x | -11.4% | Punished |
| 20 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material agreement | -5.1% | -7.7% | -7.6% | 1.8x | -11.4% | Punished |
| 22 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.4% | -0.7% | -1.1% | 0.7x | +14.3% | Neutral |
| 13 May 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Agreement terminated; Material obligation created; Unregistered equity sale; Other material event | -1.1% | -2.2% | -2.8% | 0.9x | -0.0% | Neutral |
| 05 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure | +0.4% | -3.1% | -3.9% | 1.1x | -13.2% | Neutral |
| 05 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.4% | -3.1% | -3.9% | 1.1x | -13.2% | Neutral |