ZBIO, NSP, JKHY, NVRI, BAX, CRCL

Requested read · Tuesday 25 August 2026, 20:40 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.04 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.

Ranked

highest conviction first · click a name for its charts
1 ZBIO Zenas BioPharma, Inc. Early Trend Expansion, sector confirmed; strongest on sponsorship (18/20); weakest on insider signal (12/20). Last earnings absorbed (-6.7%); 3 insiders buying. 79 $40,000–$50,000 2 NSP Insperity, Inc. Late Extension, sector confirmed; strongest on volatility (20/20); weakest on sector alignment (13/20). Last earnings neutral (+1.1%); 47% above the 200DMA. 79 $16,000–$20,000 3 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (19/20); weakest on insider signal (11/20). Last earnings neutral (+2.2%). 74 $25,000–$35,000 4 NVRI Enviri Corporation Stand aside — overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop). 70 — 5 BAX Baxter International Inc. Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (19/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). Last earnings faded (+8.0%); +16 pts vs XLV over 6m. 66 $25,000–$35,000 6 CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc. Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+3 more) 39 —
#1 ZBIO
Zenas BioPharma, Inc.
Early Trend Expansion, sector confirmed; strongest on sponsorship (18/20); weakest on insider signal (12/20). Last earnings absorbed (-6.7%); 3 insiders buying.
Early Trend Expansion XLV sector confirmed no CFO purchase$7,671,338 other insiders (6) 3 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 buy date unknown
79
conviction / 100
-0.8 since 22 Aug
84.7
technical / 100
$40,000–$50,000
Press
Regime clarity18.1
Sponsorship / positioning18.4
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)11.5
Cross-asset confirmation15.3
Last
33.77
Add above
34.05
Cut below
27.81
50DMA
28.64
200DMA
26.07
ZBIO daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
ZBIO — daily, 14 months
XLV sector ETF daily chart
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.28
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.166 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 52% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV flat-to-rising through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 11.0% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 3 distinct insiders buying (3 CEO, 3 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (3 buying vs 0 selling)
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • other insiders bought $7,671,338 (3 CEO, 3 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLV
  • XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLV vs SPY 6m: -0.0 pts
  • stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +39.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 34.05 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (28.64) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (27.81) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-05-18 21:12:28
  • Market cap $2,201,018,112 · 20d avg dollar volume $22,638,069
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$7,671,338
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers3 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
No CFO purchase here — 6 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $7,671,338. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
30 Mar 2026Moulder Leon O JrCEO54,000$18.91$1,021,140+78.6%
31 Mar 2026Lu HongboDirector3,768$18.63$70,198+81.3%
31 Mar 2026Fairmount Funds Management LLCDirector150,000$20.00$3,000,000+68.9%
31 Mar 2026Lu HongboDirector75,000$20.00$1,500,000+68.9%
28 Apr 2026Moulder Leon O JrCEO60,000$17.79$1,067,200+89.8%
18 May 2026Moulder Leon O JrCEO60,000$16.88$1,012,800+100.1%
Reaction to news
7 material events; 5 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 13 Aug: absorbed (-6.7%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
13 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Director or officer change-2.9%-6.7%-7.4%1.3x+8.3%Absorbed
13 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report-2.9%-6.7%-7.4%1.3x+8.3%Absorbed
13 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Director or officer change+2.3%+4.0%+3.5%1.1x-1.9%Rewarded
13 May 2610-QQuarterly report+2.3%+4.0%+3.5%1.1x-1.9%Rewarded
31 Mar 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created; Other material event+2.4%+7.3%+4.4%3.5x+6.7%Rewarded
16 Mar 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-2.9%-3.4%-4.4%0.9x-11.2%Neutral
16 Mar 2610-KAnnual report-2.9%-3.4%-4.4%0.9x-11.2%Neutral
#2 NSP
Insperity, Inc.
Late Extension, sector confirmed; strongest on volatility (20/20); weakest on sector alignment (13/20). Last earnings neutral (+1.1%); 47% above the 200DMA.
Late Extension XLI sector confirmed $204,500 CFO$15,543,656 other insiders (5) 4 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 168d since buy
79
conviction / 100
+7.5 since 21 Aug
80.1
technical / 100
$16,000–$20,000
Standard · sized down 60% for campaign stage (Late Extension)
Regime clarity17.1
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)14.7
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Last
52.34
Add above
54.28
Cut below
47.54
50DMA
47.31
200DMA
35.65
NSP daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
NSP — daily, 14 months
XLI sector ETF daily chart
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.23
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.282 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 6.7% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 3 CEO, 1 Officer, 1 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (4 buying vs 0 selling)
  • CFO purchases $204,500 (EVP, Finance, CFO, Treasurer)
  • 1.0 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 12%
  • 168 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLI
  • XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLI vs SPY 6m: -10.7 pts
  • stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +105.9 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 54.28 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (47.31) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (47.54) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Allison James D — EVP, Finance, CFO, Treasurer
  • 1 CFO purchase(s), $204,500 total; last filed 2026-03-11 18:27:14
  • Market cap $1,999,140,480 · 20d avg dollar volume $27,526,547
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$15,748,156
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers4 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $204,500, plus 5 by other insiders worth $15,543,656. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
10 Mar 2026Allison James DCFO10,000$20.45$204,500+155.9%
11 Mar 2026Masterson Ellen HDirector1,200$19.90$23,880+163.0%
11 Mar 2026Callens Christian POfficer1,250$19.28$24,100+171.5%
17 Mar 2026Sarvadi Paul JCEO201,987$23.21$4,688,790+125.5%
05 May 2026Sarvadi Paul JCEO100,000$28.73$2,873,236+82.2%
03 Jun 2026Sarvadi Paul JCEO233,000$34.05$7,933,650+53.7%
Reaction to news
5 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 29 Jul: neutral (+1.1%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
30 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+4.5%+1.6%-0.1%2.3x-5.1%Shrugged off
29 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+1.7%+1.1%+2.7%1.4x-3.9%Neutral
20 May 268-KDirector or officer change-2.1%+0.5%-0.5%0.5x+7.7%Neutral
01 May 2610-QQuarterly report-7.1%-19.8%-20.1%2.3x+14.2%Absorbed
30 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-6.5%-4.4%-5.4%1.1x-8.1%Punished
#3 JKHY
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (19/20); weakest on insider signal (11/20). Last earnings neutral (+2.2%).
Regime Shift XLK sector confirmed $50,295 CFO$266,840 other insiders (1) 2 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 103d since buy
74
conviction / 100
+4.4 since 24 Aug
78.0
technical / 100
$25,000–$35,000
Standard
Regime clarity18.8
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour12.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)11.1
Cross-asset confirmation17.1
Last
173.62
Add above
182.30
Cut below
149.19
50DMA
148.49
200DMA
158.94
JKHY daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
JKHY — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.24
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.344 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 7.0% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • 2 distinct insiders buying (1 CFO, 1 CEO)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (2 buying vs 0 selling)
  • CFO purchases $50,295 (CFO, Treasurer)
  • 0.0 bps of market cap
  • grew the CFO's own position by 7%
  • 103 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +17.8 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +5.5 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 182.30 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (148.49) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (149.19) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Carsley Mimi — CFO, Treasurer
  • 1 CFO purchase(s), $50,295 total; last filed 2026-05-14 17:40:20
  • Market cap $12,335,837,184 · 20d avg dollar volume $156,718,483
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$317,135
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers2 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
1 CFO purchase(s) worth $50,295, plus 1 by other insiders worth $266,840. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
14 May 2026Adelson Gregory R.CEO2,000$133.42$266,840+30.1%
14 May 2026Carsley MimiCFO375$134.12$50,295+29.5%
Reaction to news
8 material events; 2 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 18 Aug: neutral (+2.2%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
24 Aug 268-KDirector or officer change-0.2%+2.6%+2.9%1.1x—Rewarded
18 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+1.1%+2.2%+2.8%1.6x+13.4%Neutral
11 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-0.5%-0.9%-0.6%0.9x-0.3%Neutral
04 Jun 268-KDirector or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure+1.8%-1.8%-2.2%0.8x-3.6%Neutral
12 May 268-KOther material event+1.4%+0.8%+0.9%1.3x-2.9%Neutral
07 May 2610-QQuarterly report-0.3%+2.2%+2.5%1.3x-8.2%Rewarded
05 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-1.0%-2.1%-2.9%1.3x-3.1%Neutral
28 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+1.5%+1.2%+1.7%0.7x-2.3%Neutral
#4 NVRI
Enviri Corporation
Stand aside — overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Mature Trend XLI sector confirmed $220,125 CFO$1,354,161 other insiders (3) 4 insider(s) net purchase ratio +1.00 7d since buy
70
conviction / 100
+14.3 since 21 Aug
65.5
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.5
Sponsorship / positioning10.2
Volatility behaviour14.3
Catalyst alignment (insider)17.6
Cross-asset confirmation12.4
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
21.62
Add above
24.20
Cut below
19.36
50DMA
21.92
200DMA
19.28
NVRI daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
NVRI — daily, 14 months
XLI sector ETF daily chart
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.11 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.197 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 28% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
  • 1 day(s) above 10x median volume (peak 36x) — OBV distorted by an event, sponsorship read unreliable
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 17.6% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (2 CFO, 1 CEO, 2 Director)
  • net purchase ratio +1.00 (4 buying vs 0 selling)
  • CFO purchases $220,125 (EVP, CFO)
  • 3.6 bps of market cap
  • a NEW position for the CFO
  • 7 days since the last CFO buy
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLI
  • XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLI vs SPY 6m: -10.7 pts
  • stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +12.9 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 24.20 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (21.92) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (19.36) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: Minan Peter Francis — EVP, CFO
  • 2 CFO purchase(s), $220,125 total; last filed 2026-08-19 08:11:12
  • Market cap $609,470,400 · 20d avg dollar volume $7,240,032
Net insider activity
Net buying across the insider group.
Open-market purchases$1,574,286
Open-market sales$0
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers4 / 0
Net purchase ratio+1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales+1.00
Purchase tape
2 CFO purchase(s) worth $220,125, plus 3 by other insiders worth $1,354,161. Only the CFO purchases score on the size and recency terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
03 Jun 2026Purvis Edgar M JrDirector14,000$18.10$253,400+19.4%
03 Jun 2026Hochman Russell C.CEO51,519$19.43$1,001,014+11.3%
05 Jun 2026Minan Peter FrancisCFO8,333$19.25$160,410+12.3%
17 Aug 2026Haznedar Carolann IDirector4,875$20.46$99,747+5.7%
18 Aug 2026Minan Peter FrancisCFO2,946$20.27$59,715+6.7%
Reaction to news
6 material events; 1 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 11 Aug: punished (-7.9%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
11 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+2.9%-7.9%-7.6%2.9x-2.4%Punished
11 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report+2.9%-7.9%-7.6%2.9x-2.4%Punished
08 Jun 2610-QQuarterly report+1.6%+3.0%+2.8%0.3x+4.2%Neutral
01 Jun 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created; Change in control; Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure+2.3%-2.1%-2.4%0.0x+13.9%Neutral
20 May 268-KOther material event+0.5%+1.8%+0.8%1.2x-0.2%Neutral
11 May 268-KRegulation FD disclosure+0.0%-2.0%-2.2%1.5x+2.4%Shrugged off
#5 BAX
Baxter International Inc.
Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (19/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). Last earnings faded (+8.0%); +16 pts vs XLV over 6m.
Regime Shift XLV sector confirmed 1 insider(s) buy date unknown
66
conviction / 100
+1.0 since 24 Aug
80.6
technical / 100
$25,000–$35,000
Standard
Regime clarity19.1
Sponsorship / positioning13.6
Volatility behaviour16.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation15.3
Last
26.29
Add above
30.00
Cut below
25.75
50DMA
23.83
200DMA
20.03
BAX daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
BAX — daily, 14 months
XLV sector ETF daily chart
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.25
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.207 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 8.6% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio unavailable
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLV
  • XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLV vs SPY 6m: -0.0 pts
  • stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +16.4 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 30.00 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (23.83) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (25.75) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $13,591,825,408 · 20d avg dollar volume $207,842,618
Net insider activity
  • No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news
8 material events; 2 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 30 Jul: faded (+8.0%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
19 Aug 268-KDirector or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure+0.4%+2.7%+2.5%0.6x—Rewarded
18 Aug 268-KMaterial agreement; Other material event+0.7%+0.1%+0.8%0.9x+1.3%Neutral
04 Aug 268-KOther material event-1.3%+0.9%-0.9%1.5x-2.6%Neutral
04 Aug 268-KDirector or officer change-1.3%+0.9%-0.9%1.5x-2.6%Neutral
30 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event+17.4%+8.0%+6.3%3.9x+1.0%Faded
30 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+17.4%+8.0%+6.3%3.9x+1.0%Faded
14 Jul 268-KRegulation FD disclosure-2.8%-3.4%-3.8%0.8x+1.9%Neutral
08 May 268-KDirector or officer change+1.3%+2.9%+2.0%1.0x-3.8%Rewarded
#6 CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+3 more)
Unclear XLF sector confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
39
conviction / 100
49.0
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity5.0
Sponsorship / positioning11.3
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.9
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
  • 50DMA is not rising.
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (10 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.11 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 54% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
Last
92.02
Add above
118.85
Cut below
60.35
50DMA
69.86
200DMA
85.02
CRCL daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
CRCL — daily, 14 months
XLF sector ETF daily chart
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA flat/falling
  • 50DMA flat/falling
  • no HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.11 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.126 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 35% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 54.2% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 10 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLF
  • XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLF vs SPY 6m: +3.3 pts
  • stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): +5.0 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 118.85 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (69.86) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (60.35) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $25,084,108,800 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,030,542,618
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$22,604,639
Sales after option exercise$213,724,300
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 10
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Reaction to news
8 material events; 5 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: shrugged off (+0.0%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
05 Aug 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-2.0%+0.0%+0.2%1.6x+12.6%Shrugged off
05 Aug 2610-QQuarterly report-2.0%+0.0%+0.2%1.6x+12.6%Shrugged off
02 Jul 268-KOther material event+3.0%+4.3%+4.4%1.2x+2.4%Faded
12 Jun 268-KDirector or officer change-0.8%-5.8%-6.3%0.9x+2.7%Punished
18 May 268-KMaterial event-1.7%-2.3%-2.2%0.7x-6.5%Neutral
11 May 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event+4.6%+15.9%+15.7%3.7x-15.5%Rewarded
11 May 2610-QQuarterly report+4.6%+15.9%+15.7%3.7x-15.5%Rewarded
17 Mar 268-KDirector or officer change-1.4%+5.1%+4.9%1.1x-23.5%Rewarded