TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+5 more)
No Long Regime
XLC
sector not confirmed
no CFO purchase$1,000,016 other insiders (1)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.99
buy date unknown
34
conviction / 100
-2.0 since 14 Aug
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity1.5
Sponsorship / positioning17.0
Volatility behaviour15.3
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation0.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.99 over the last 180 days (7 selling vs 1 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.05 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
- Sector ETF is breaking down — no new longs in this sector.
Last
182.61
Add above
198.86
Cut below
169.68
50DMA
181.51
200DMA
195.40
TMUS — daily, 14 months
XLC — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.05 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.118 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV flat-to-rising through last pullback
- last pullback 15.0% deep
- 1 wide down bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster (1 Unclassified)
- net purchase ratio -0.99 (1 buying vs 7 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $1,000,016 (1 Unclassified) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLC
- XLC BELOW its 200DMA — sector breaking down
- XLC vs SPY 6m: -15.5 pts
- stock vs XLC RS (3m/6m avg): -6.2 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 198.86 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLC extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (181.51) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (169.68) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-05-04 17:36:36
- Market cap $195,880,566,784 · 20d avg dollar volume $886,825,853
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $1,000,016 |
| Open-market sales | $152,956,953 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 7 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.99 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -0.99 |
10 open-market sale(s).
| Trade date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | Claure Raul MarceloDirector | Open-market sale | -550,000 | $217.57 | $119,663,500 |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Nelson Mark WolfeOfficer | Open-market sale | -16,514 | $220.38 | $3,639,327 |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Osvaldik PeterCFO | Open-market sale | -27,000 | $214.86 | $5,801,220 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Sievert G MichaelDirector | Open-market sale | -80,000 | $214.94 | $17,195,200 |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Sievert G MichaelDirector | Open-market sale | -15,000 | $220.20 | $3,302,988 |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Nelson Mark WolfeOfficer | Open-market sale | -2,329 | $222.38 | $517,968 |
| 04 Mar 2026 | Datar Srikant M.Director | Open-market sale | -3,291 | $221.10 | $727,640 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Datar Srikant M.Director | Open-market sale | -1,000 | $218.25 | $218,250 |
| 01 May 2026 | Katz Michael J.Officer | Open-market sale | -5,000 | $195.81 | $979,050 |
| 21 May 2026 | Freier JonCOO | Open-market sale | -4,799 | $190.00 | $911,810 |
No CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $1,000,016. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 May 2026 | Almeida AndreUnclassified | 5,097 | $196.18 | $1,000,016 | -6.9% |
8 material events; 4 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 23 Jul: punished (-10.7%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -8.0% | -10.7% | -9.5% | 1.8x | +1.7% | Punished |
| 23 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -8.0% | -10.7% | -9.5% | 1.8x | +1.7% | Punished |
| 07 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | +2.2% | +1.6% | +2.1% | 0.8x | +1.3% | Neutral |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.0% | +0.2% | -0.8% | 2.5x | +0.6% | Shrugged off |
| 28 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.3% | +2.2% | +2.7% | 1.7x | +4.1% | Rewarded |
| 28 Apr 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.3% | +2.2% | +2.7% | 1.7x | +4.1% | Rewarded |
| 23 Apr 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -0.2% | +2.7% | +3.1% | 1.1x | +0.7% | Rewarded |
| 31 Mar 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -0.0% | -1.8% | -4.7% | 1.3x | -5.9% | Neutral |