BAX, SW

Requested read · Saturday 15 August 2026, 03:48 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.15 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.

Ranked

highest conviction first · click a name for its charts
1 BAX Baxter International Inc. Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (20/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). Last earnings faded (+8.0%); 35% above the 200DMA. 61 $25,000–$35,000 2 SW Smurfit WestRock plc Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group. 57 —
#1 BAX
Baxter International Inc.
Regime Shift, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (20/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). Last earnings faded (+8.0%); 35% above the 200DMA.
Regime Shift XLV sector confirmed 1 insider(s) buy date unknown
61
conviction / 100
unchanged since 14 Aug
$25,000–$35,000
Standard
Regime clarity19.8
Sponsorship / positioning13.9
Volatility behaviour12.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Last
26.73
Add above
30.00
Cut below
21.40
50DMA
22.94
200DMA
19.79
BAX daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
BAX — daily, 14 months
XLV sector ETF daily chart
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.29
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.217 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 5.7% deep
  • 1 wide down bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio unavailable
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLV
  • XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLV vs SPY 6m: -6.4 pts
  • stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +35.3 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 30.00 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (22.94) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (21.40) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $13,819,302,912 · 20d avg dollar volume $202,596,432
Net insider activity
  • No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news
8 material events; 3 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 30 Jul: faded (+8.0%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
04 Aug 268-KOther material event-1.3%+0.9%-0.9%1.5x-2.6%Neutral
04 Aug 268-KDirector or officer change-1.3%+0.9%-0.9%1.5x-2.6%Neutral
30 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event+17.4%+8.0%+6.3%3.9x+1.0%Faded
30 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report+17.4%+8.0%+6.3%3.9x+1.0%Faded
14 Jul 268-KRegulation FD disclosure-2.8%-3.4%-3.8%0.8x+1.9%Neutral
08 May 268-KDirector or officer change+1.3%+2.9%+2.0%1.0x-3.8%Rewarded
30 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Other material event+4.9%+4.0%+3.0%3.0x-0.5%Rewarded
30 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report+4.9%+4.0%+3.0%3.0x-0.5%Rewarded
#2 SW
Smurfit WestRock plc
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
Regime Shift XLY sector not confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
57
conviction / 100
-4.5 since 14 Aug
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity18.7
Sponsorship / positioning9.3
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation8.8
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
Last
49.25
Add above
51.52
Cut below
42.04
50DMA
45.00
200DMA
40.75
SW daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
SW — daily, 14 months
XLY sector ETF daily chart
XLY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • higher highs and higher lows
  • efficiency ratio 0.23
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.060 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 9.5% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 3 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLY
  • XLY above a flat 200DMA (stable)
  • XLY vs SPY 6m: -12.4 pts
  • stock vs XLY RS (3m/6m avg): +11.1 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 51.52 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (45.00) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (42.04) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $25,832,753,152 · 20d avg dollar volume $241,520,012
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$3,356,065
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 3
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Sale tape
3 open-market sale(s).
Trade dateInsiderTypeSharesPriceValue
18 Feb 2026Sellier LaurentUnclassifiedOpen-market sale-15,562$50.24$781,865
19 Feb 2026Bowles KenCFOOpen-market sale-10,000$51.26$512,600
19 Feb 2026Smurfit Anthony P JCEOOpen-market sale-40,000$51.54$2,061,600
Reaction to news
7 material events; 0 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 29 Jul: punished (-5.0%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
31 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report-0.0%-3.3%-4.0%1.3x+5.0%Neutral
29 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure-6.6%-5.0%-3.5%1.1x+0.4%Punished
01 May 2610-QQuarterly report+1.5%+2.7%+2.4%1.2x+5.4%Neutral
01 May 268-KMaterial event+1.5%+2.7%+2.4%1.2x+5.4%Neutral
30 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Regulation FD disclosure-4.5%-3.3%-4.2%2.6x+8.4%Neutral
27 Feb 2610-KAnnual report-1.1%+1.2%+1.6%1.1x-8.8%Neutral
27 Feb 268-KDirector or officer change-1.1%+1.2%+1.6%1.1x-8.8%Neutral