STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+5 more)
No Long Regime
XLC
sector not confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
16
conviction / 100
-0.1 since 24 Aug
20.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity0.0
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour9.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation0.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (4 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.15 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
- Sector ETF is breaking down — no new longs in this sector.
Last
6.81
Add above
9.47
Cut below
6.67
50DMA
9.78
200DMA
10.32
STUB — daily, 14 months
XLC — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.15 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.125 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 51.3% deep
- 1 wide down bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 4 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLC
- XLC BELOW its 200DMA — sector breaking down
- XLC vs SPY 6m: -14.0 pts
- stock vs XLC RS (3m/6m avg): -27.5 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 9.47 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLC extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (9.78) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (6.67) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $2,602,032,640 · 20d avg dollar volume $53,387,918
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $7,182,427 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 4 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
8 material events; 4 taken well, 3 badly; last earnings 12 Aug: rewarded (+4.3%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -17.4% | -10.1% | -10.8% | 4.2x | -11.1% | Punished |
| 12 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.0% | +4.3% | +4.0% | 2.3x | -18.7% | Rewarded |
| 26 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | -0.1% | +7.6% | +8.4% | 7.2x | +10.4% | Rewarded |
| 26 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.1% | +7.6% | +8.4% | 7.2x | +10.4% | Rewarded |
| 14 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +18.4% | +13.7% | +12.9% | 4.9x | +15.1% | Faded |
| 13 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.3% | +2.7% | +2.2% | 3.0x | +33.0% | Rewarded |
| 05 Mar 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -14.1% | -12.4% | -11.8% | 4.9x | -11.4% | Punished |
| 04 Mar 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.7% | 1.4x | -25.5% | Neutral |