#1 SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+2 more)
No Long Regime
XLF
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$2,251,368 other insiders (5)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -0.13
buy date unknown
38
conviction / 100
47.8
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity5.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour16.9
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.3
Cross-asset confirmation8.8
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.05 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
19.21
Add above
19.74
Cut below
17.64
50DMA
17.82
200DMA
20.32
SOFI — daily, 14 months
XLF — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.05 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.199 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 20.1% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster (5 CEO)
- net purchase ratio -0.13 (1 buying vs 3 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $2,251,368 (5 CEO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLF
- XLF above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLF vs SPY 6m: -1.1 pts
- stock vs XLF RS (3m/6m avg): -5.7 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 19.74 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLF extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (17.82) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (17.64) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-06-16 16:15:44
- Market cap $24,798,279,680 · 20d avg dollar volume $868,738,248
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $2,251,368 |
| Open-market sales | $1,090,070 |
| Sales after option exercise | $1,836,592 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 3 |
| Net purchase ratio | -0.13 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.35 |
No CFO purchase here — 5 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $2,251,368. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar 2026 | Noto AnthonyCEO | 56,000 | $17.88 | $1,001,515 | +7.4% |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Noto AnthonyCEO | 28,900 | $17.32 | $500,516 | +10.9% |
| 08 May 2026 | Noto AnthonyCEO | 15,878 | $15.73 | $249,769 | +22.1% |
| 11 May 2026 | Noto AnthonyCEO | 15,545 | $16.00 | $248,781 | +20.1% |
| 16 Jun 2026 | Noto AnthonyCEO | 13,888 | $18.06 | $250,787 | +6.4% |
6 material events; 3 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 29 Jul: absorbed (-8.9%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -1.7% | -0.8% | -0.7% | 0.5x | +1.8% | Neutral |
| 29 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -7.4% | -8.9% | -7.4% | 2.4x | +19.7% | Absorbed |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | +2.3% | +2.8% | +1.8% | 1.0x | -0.2% | Rewarded |
| 07 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -0.2% | -1.8% | -1.5% | 0.9x | +0.1% | Neutral |
| 29 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -9.9% | -15.4% | -15.4% | 3.7x | +5.0% | Absorbed |
| 27 Apr 26 | Earnings | Earnings | +0.2% | +1.7% | +1.6% | 0.9x | -13.6% | Neutral |
