SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
Stand aside — 50DMA is not rising. (+1 more)
Late Extension
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
52
conviction / 100
+2.0 since 18 Aug
62.5
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity10.0
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour13.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.01 vs the 0.15 threshold (violent whipsaw, not a quiet range — the last pullback was 56% deep. Huge travel, no net progress).
Last
1,580.91
Add above
1,696.37
Cut below
1,015.89
50DMA
1,656.28
200DMA
925.32
SNDK — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA flat/falling
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.01 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.168 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 29% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 56.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +18.2 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +70.1 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 1696.37 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (1656.28) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (1015.89) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $231,475,281,920 · 20d avg dollar volume $23,559,743,810
NOT CHECKED
Reaction to news- The insider-activity lookup failed for this name, so the net-seller test could not run. Absence of a warning here is not a clean bill of health — re-run before sizing anything.
6 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: punished (-5.4%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 26 | 10-K | Annual report | +3.6% | +8.9% | +9.4% | 1.1x | — | Rewarded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | -2.0% | -5.4% | -5.2% | 1.0x | -0.5% | Punished |
| 15 May 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -4.5% | +1.8% | +3.0% | 0.9x | +5.0% | Neutral |
| 01 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -3.4% | +8.3% | +8.0% | 1.5x | +31.6% | Rewarded |
| 30 Apr 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | +4.5% | +3.0% | +2.0% | 1.0x | +22.2% | Neutral |
| 25 Mar 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Other material event | -7.3% | -3.5% | -4.1% | 1.1x | +2.2% | Neutral |