#1 SHOP
Shopify Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
Unclear
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
63
conviction / 100
+4.7 since 18 Aug
76.1
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity12.9
Sponsorship / positioning12.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
SHOP — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.19
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope +0.150 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 7.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +20.4 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +16.1 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 170.90 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (124.31) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (111.06) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $188,596,273,152 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,595,328,623
Net insider activity- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news8 material events; 0 taken well, 5 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: faded (+17.0%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +21.7% | +17.0% | +17.2% | 4.7x | +4.3% | Faded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +21.7% | +17.0% | +17.2% | 4.7x | +4.3% | Faded |
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -2.1% | -1.8% | -1.7% | 0.8x | +2.6% | Neutral |
| 16 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -0.5% | +0.7% | +1.3% | 0.6x | +0.8% | Neutral |
| 02 Jun 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -3.0% | -5.7% | -5.9% | 0.6x | -5.6% | Punished |
| 08 May 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -1.2% | -1.2% | -2.0% | 1.3x | -9.2% | Neutral |
| 05 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -9.0% | -15.6% | -16.4% | 5.3x | -7.2% | Punished |
| 05 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -9.0% | -15.6% | -16.4% | 5.3x | -7.2% | Punished |
#2 CXW
CoreCivic, Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (8 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
Late Extension
XLI
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
62
conviction / 100
76.9
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity18.5
Sponsorship / positioning14.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (8 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
CXW — daily, 14 months
XLI — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.34
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope +0.223 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 29% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 6.8% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 8 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLI
- XLI above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLI vs SPY 6m: -7.6 pts
- stock vs XLI RS (3m/6m avg): +57.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 34.86 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLI extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (30.43) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (28.50) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $3,204,149,248 · 20d avg dollar volume $45,819,613
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $12,195,520 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 8 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
Reaction to news8 material events; 3 taken well, 3 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: faded (+3.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 10 Aug 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure; Other material event | +5.3% | +2.3% | +2.3% | 1.5x | +1.8% | Faded |
| 06 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -7.7% | +3.2% | +3.4% | 2.5x | -2.0% | Rewarded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Other material event | +2.7% | +3.6% | +3.8% | 2.5x | +7.6% | Faded |
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Acquisition or disposition; Regulation FD disclosure | +2.7% | +3.6% | +3.8% | 2.5x | +7.6% | Faded |
| 13 Jul 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +0.3% | -1.4% | -0.7% | 0.5x | +1.3% | Neutral |
| 06 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Acquisition or disposition; Regulation FD disclosure | +4.1% | -2.0% | -2.8% | 1.8x | +3.3% | Shrugged off |
| 18 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.0% | +1.4% | +1.4% | 0.7x | +0.8% | Neutral |
| 07 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +2.0% | +3.1% | +3.4% | 3.7x | -2.6% | Rewarded |
#3 AGYS
Agilysys, Inc.
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Unclear
XLK
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$27,289 other insiders (1)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
60
conviction / 100
75.4
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity13.3
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (2 selling vs 1 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
AGYS — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.21
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope +0.286 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- OBV DIVERGENCE during acceleration
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 7.5% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster (1 Director)
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (1 buying vs 2 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $27,289 (1 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +20.4 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +29.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 115.90 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (102.77) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (103.75) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-03-18 16:10:49
- Market cap $3,157,920,000 · 20d avg dollar volume $33,748,366
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $27,289 |
| Open-market sales | $21,562,093 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 2 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
Purchase tapeNo CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $27,289. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|
| 16 Mar 2026 | Keating Melvin LDirector | 400 | $68.22 | $27,289 | +64.1% |
Reaction to news6 material events; 1 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 27 Jul: neutral (+4.8%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 27 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | 0.9x | +6.2% | Neutral |
| 27 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.9% | +4.8% | +4.7% | 0.9x | +6.2% | Neutral |
| 22 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -1.4% | -3.5% | -3.2% | 1.1x | +22.5% | Neutral |
| 03 Jun 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -0.2% | -1.5% | -0.8% | 0.7x | +3.2% | Neutral |
| 21 May 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -2.3% | -2.3% | -2.5% | 0.9x | +8.9% | Neutral |
| 18 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.2% | +4.2% | +4.3% | 3.2x | +12.9% | Rewarded |
#4 SAP
SAP SE
Stand aside — 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear. (+1 more)
Regime Shift
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
50
conviction / 100
60.6
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity9.0
Sponsorship / positioning10.7
Volatility behaviour14.8
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.14 vs the 0.15 threshold (borderline, watch for resolution).
SAP — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA rising
- no HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.14 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope +0.105 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 25.4% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +20.4 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): -6.6 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 235.89 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (171.90) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (146.38) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $242,925,371,392 · 20d avg dollar volume $639,783,175
Net insider activity- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
Reaction to news2 material events; 1 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 22 Jul: neutral (-3.6%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 22 Jul 26 | Earnings | Earnings | +0.6% | -3.6% | -3.5% | 1.6x | +25.0% | Neutral |
| 23 Apr 26 | Earnings | Earnings | -4.6% | -6.2% | -5.8% | 2.2x | +3.8% | Absorbed |
#5 VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling. (+2 more)
Early Trend Expansion
XLC
sector not confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
37
conviction / 100
unchanged since 18 Aug
46.8
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity17.0
Sponsorship / positioning0.0
Volatility behaviour16.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation3.9
Stand aside — hard gate breached- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (3 selling vs 0 buying). There is no offsetting insider purchase — this is one-way selling.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.03 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
- Sector ETF is breaking down — no new longs in this sector.
VZ — daily, 14 months
XLC — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- higher highs and higher lows
- efficiency ratio 0.03 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning- OBV 50d slope -0.090 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- OBV DIVERGENCE during acceleration
- OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour- last pullback 4.3% deep
- 1 wide down bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 3 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation- closest sector ETF: XLC
- XLC BELOW its 200DMA — sector breaking down
- XLC vs SPY 6m: -16.2 pts
- stock vs XLC RS (3m/6m avg): +8.1 pts
What strengthens the thesis
- A confirmed higher high above 49.01 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLC extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (45.13) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (45.09) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $201,672,802,304 · 20d avg dollar volume $1,117,412,962
Net insider activityInsiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $15,086,636 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 3 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
Reaction to news8 material events; 2 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 24 Jul: rewarded (+5.8%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|
| 31 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -0.5% | +1.5% | +0.8% | 0.9x | +0.5% | Neutral |
| 24 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +0.6% | +5.8% | +5.7% | 1.2x | +0.9% | Rewarded |
| 24 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.6% | +5.8% | +5.7% | 1.2x | +0.9% | Rewarded |
| 29 Jun 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -2.1% | -5.2% | -6.9% | 2.1x | -3.4% | Punished |
| 17 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | -0.5% | -1.9% | -0.7% | 1.5x | +0.5% | Neutral |
| 02 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.2% | 0.7x | -4.4% | Neutral |
| 28 May 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.5% | -0.5% | -1.0% | 1.0x | -6.5% | Neutral |
| 14 May 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +0.5% | -0.3% | -1.1% | 0.7x | +2.6% | Neutral |