PANW

Requested read · Thursday 13 August 2026, 17:35 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.13 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.
PANW
Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.53 over the last 180 days (7 selling vs 1 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
Late Extension XLK sector confirmed no CFO purchase$9,999,977 other insiders (1) 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -0.53 buy date unknown
71
conviction / 100
+0.4 since 13 Aug
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity18.2
Sponsorship / positioning13.0
Volatility behaviour19.8
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation20.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -0.53 over the last 180 days (7 selling vs 1 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
Last
391.64
Add above
398.87
Cut below
308.54
50DMA
324.16
200DMA
221.55
PANW daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
PANW — daily, 14 months
XLK sector ETF daily chart
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.29
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope +0.186 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 12.4% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR contracting vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster (1 CEO)
  • net purchase ratio -0.53 (1 buying vs 7 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • other insiders bought $9,999,977 (1 CEO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLK
  • XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLK vs SPY 6m: +21.3 pts
  • stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): +83.2 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 398.87 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (324.16) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (308.54) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-03-27 18:11:23
  • Market cap $319,189,286,912 · 20d avg dollar volume $2,067,776,959
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$9,999,977
Open-market sales$32,407,544
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers1 / 7
Net purchase ratio-0.53
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-0.53
Purchase tape
No CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $9,999,977. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
Trade dateInsiderSharesPriceValuePrice now vs buy
27 Mar 2026Arora NikeshCEO68,085$146.88$9,999,977+166.6%
Reaction to news
7 material events; 2 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 02 Jun: shrugged off (-1.1%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
03 Jun 2610-QQuarterly report-4.1%-5.6%-4.9%1.6x-6.1%Punished
02 Jun 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-4.3%-1.1%-1.2%2.4x-12.3%Shrugged off
13 Apr 268-KMaterial agreement; Material obligation created-0.1%+4.4%+3.4%1.0x+4.3%Rewarded
23 Mar 268-KOther material event+0.9%+0.7%-0.4%0.7x-5.9%Neutral
11 Mar 268-KOther material event+0.6%-0.4%-0.3%0.3x+2.4%Neutral
18 Feb 2610-QQuarterly report-8.5%-6.8%-7.3%2.2x-4.9%Punished
17 Feb 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)-0.8%-2.1%-2.2%1.4x-13.4%Neutral