#1 NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
Stand aside — 50DMA is not rising. (+2 more)
Mature Trend
XLK
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio -1.00
buy date unknown
51
conviction / 100
-2.0 since 13 Aug
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity11.5
Sponsorship / positioning8.0
Volatility behaviour17.2
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation14.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (7 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.00 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
224.09
Add above
232.01
Cut below
190.01
50DMA
206.25
200DMA
194.38
NVDA — daily, 14 months
XLK — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA flat/falling
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.00 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.013 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 19.3% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 7 selling)
- insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLK
- XLK above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLK vs SPY 6m: +20.6 pts
- stock vs XLK RS (3m/6m avg): -10.1 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 232.01 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLK extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (206.25) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (190.01) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $5,427,683,655,680 · 20d avg dollar volume $25,945,942,480
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
| Open-market purchases | $0 |
| Open-market sales | $574,327,498 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 0 / 7 |
| Net purchase ratio | -1.00 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | -1.00 |
8 material events; 3 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 20 May: neutral (+1.3%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.2% | -1.4% | -1.3% | 0.9x | +8.3% | Neutral |
| 30 Jun 26 | 8-K | Material event | +1.2% | +2.6% | +1.8% | 1.0x | +2.0% | Rewarded |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +1.3% | +3.0% | +1.9% | 1.4x | -8.6% | Rewarded |
| 20 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.2% | +1.3% | +0.3% | 1.2x | -4.1% | Neutral |
| 20 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.2% | +1.3% | +0.3% | 1.2x | -4.1% | Neutral |
| 08 May 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.7% | +1.7% | +0.9% | 0.9x | +4.7% | Neutral |
| 27 Apr 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.7% | +4.0% | +3.8% | 1.2x | -8.4% | Rewarded |
| 06 Mar 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -1.9% | -3.0% | -1.7% | 1.0x | +1.4% | Neutral |
