NKE
Nike, Inc.
Stand aside — price below the 200DMA — no long regime. (+3 more)
No Long Regime
XLY
sector not confirmed
no CFO purchase$3,734,230 other insiders (5)
4 insider(s)
net purchase ratio +0.36
buy date unknown
43
conviction / 100
+8.8 since 11 Aug
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity1.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour19.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)10.8
Cross-asset confirmation4.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Price below the 200DMA — no long regime.
- 200DMA is not rising — regime not clear.
- 50DMA is not rising.
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.01 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
41.32
Add above
43.69
Cut below
40.75
50DMA
43.06
200DMA
53.04
NKE — daily, 14 months
XLY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price BELOW 200DMA
- 200DMA flat/falling
- 50DMA flat/falling
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.01 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope -0.228 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 13.2% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- cluster: 4 distinct insiders buying (2 CEO, 3 Director)
- net purchase ratio +0.36 (4 buying vs 5 selling)
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $3,734,230 (2 CEO, 3 Director) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLY
- XLY above a flat 200DMA (stable)
- XLY vs SPY 6m: -9.8 pts
- stock vs XLY RS (3m/6m avg): -18.2 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 43.69 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- The 50DMA turning up would restore regime clarity.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (43.06) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (40.75) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-04-14 16:27:16
- Market cap $61,298,167,808 · 20d avg dollar volume $814,667,991
Net buying across the insider group.
| Open-market purchases | $3,734,230 |
| Open-market sales | $1,768,555 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 4 / 5 |
| Net purchase ratio | +0.36 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.36 |
No CFO purchase here — 5 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $3,734,230. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr 2026 | Swan Robert HolmesDirector | 11,781 | $42.44 | $500,002 | -2.6% |
| 09 Apr 2026 | Rogers John W JrDirector | 4,000 | $43.34 | $173,360 | -4.7% |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Cook Timothy DDirector | 25,000 | $42.43 | $1,060,750 | -2.6% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Hill ElliottCEO | 23,660 | $42.27 | $1,000,118 | -2.2% |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Hill ElliottCEO | 23,660 | $42.27 | $1,000,000 | -2.2% |
8 material events; 3 taken well, 1 badly; last earnings 30 Jun: shrugged off (-1.0%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +0.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% | 1.2x | — | Neutral |
| 15 Jul 26 | 10-K | Annual report | +0.3% | -0.2% | -0.6% | 0.5x | -1.3% | Neutral |
| 30 Jun 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.2% | -1.0% | -1.8% | 3.1x | +4.5% | Shrugged off |
| 23 Jun 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings); Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | -1.9% | -1.9% | -0.4% | 1.5x | -3.1% | Neutral |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | +0.5% | +2.3% | +1.2% | 1.5x | -9.8% | Rewarded |
| 01 Apr 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -11.9% | -15.5% | -16.3% | 6.8x | -1.4% | Punished |
| 31 Mar 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.3% | +3.1% | +0.2% | 2.3x | -18.3% | Rewarded |
| 09 Mar 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Agreement terminated; Material obligation created | -2.2% | -0.8% | -1.7% | 1.2x | -3.1% | Neutral |