#1 MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
Late Extension, sector confirmed; strongest on regime (18/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). OBV distorted by a 15x volume day — sponsorship read unreliable; last earnings absorbed (-5.4%).
Late Extension
XLV
sector confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
54
conviction / 100
-1.2 since 18 Aug
65.5
technical / 100
$4,000–$7,000
Probe · sized down 60% for campaign stage (Late Extension)
Regime clarity18.5
Sponsorship / positioning9.9
Volatility behaviour9.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation15.0
Last
145.32
Add above
163.47
Cut below
52.66
50DMA
63.33
200DMA
47.45
MRNA — daily, 14 months
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.47
- OBV 50d slope +0.180 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- price/volume history is NOT one continuous security — a single 131% session gap. A conversion, large secondary or stock merger changes the share count, so the 200DMA averages two capital structures and OBV sums two different securities. Read this pillar with suspicion.
- 1 day(s) above 10x median volume (peak 15x) — OBV distorted by an event, sponsorship read unreliable
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 34.2% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR expanding vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLV
- XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLV vs SPY 6m: -0.7 pts
- stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +198.9 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 163.47 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (63.33) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (52.66) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $58,018,955,264 · 20d avg dollar volume $939,467,001
NOT CHECKED
Reaction to news- The insider-activity lookup failed for this name, so the net-seller test could not run. Absence of a warning here is not a clean bill of health — re-run before sizing anything.
8 material events; 4 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 31 Jul: absorbed (-5.4%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | -0.1% | -5.4% | -6.1% | 1.2x | +7.9% | Absorbed |
| 31 Jul 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | -0.1% | -5.4% | -6.1% | 1.2x | +7.9% | Absorbed |
| 08 Jul 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure | -3.0% | -7.5% | -7.2% | 0.7x | -7.5% | Punished |
| 11 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +6.9% | -2.7% | -2.9% | 3.7x | -9.0% | Neutral |
| 01 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.5% | -1.2% | -1.5% | 1.8x | +19.8% | Shrugged off |
| 01 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.5% | -1.2% | -1.5% | 1.8x | +19.8% | Shrugged off |
| 05 Mar 26 | 8-K | Material agreement | -1.5% | -6.9% | -6.3% | 1.3x | -0.8% | Punished |
| 20 Feb 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -1.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% | 0.7x | +7.4% | Neutral |
