#1 KHC
The Kraft Heinz Company
Stand aside — overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.09 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Regime Shift
XLP
sector confirmed
no CFO purchase$4,999,808 other insiders (1)
1 insider(s)
net purchase ratio +0.73
buy date unknown
58
conviction / 100
-1.0 since 18 Aug
67.2
technical / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.5
Sponsorship / positioning9.9
Volatility behaviour16.5
Catalyst alignment (insider)4.7
Cross-asset confirmation11.9
Stand aside — hard gate breached
- Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.09 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
25.82
Add above
28.09
Cut below
24.10
50DMA
24.93
200DMA
23.45
KHC — daily, 14 months
XLP — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.09 (overlapping)
- OBV 50d slope +0.080 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 11.2% deep
- 1 wide down bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster (1 CEO)
- net purchase ratio +0.73 (1 buying vs 2 selling)
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- other insiders bought $4,999,808 (1 CEO) — counted through cluster breadth and net buying only
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLP
- XLP above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
- XLP vs SPY 6m: -12.7 pts
- stock vs XLP RS (3m/6m avg): +11.3 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 28.09 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLP extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (24.93) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (24.10) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), $0 total; last filed 2026-05-13 16:08:04
- Market cap $30,612,039,680 · 20d avg dollar volume $382,683,776
Net buying across the insider group.
| Open-market purchases | $4,999,808 |
| Open-market sales | $770,610 |
| Sales after option exercise | $0 |
| Distinct buyers / sellers | 1 / 2 |
| Net purchase ratio | +0.73 |
| Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales | +0.73 |
No CFO purchase here — 1 purchase(s) by other insiders worth $4,999,808. These count toward cluster breadth and net buying, not the CFO-specific terms.
| Trade date | Insider | Shares | Price | Value | Price now vs buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | Cahillane Steven ACEO | 213,106 | $23.46 | $4,999,808 | +10.0% |
8 material events; 3 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 05 Aug: neutral (-3.4%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.2% | -3.4% | -3.2% | 1.8x | -4.7% | Neutral |
| 05 Aug 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +1.2% | -3.4% | -3.2% | 1.8x | -4.7% | Neutral |
| 27 Jul 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.1% | +2.1% | +2.1% | 1.3x | +0.8% | Rewarded |
| 18 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | -0.5% | -1.6% | -2.7% | 1.6x | +3.9% | Shrugged off |
| 08 Jun 26 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | -0.4% | +3.4% | +3.2% | 1.0x | +2.7% | Rewarded |
| 21 May 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Material obligation created; Regulation FD disclosure | +0.1% | +0.0% | -0.2% | 0.9x | +2.0% | Neutral |
| 19 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +0.1% | -0.3% | +0.4% | 0.9x | +4.7% | Neutral |
| 13 May 26 | 8-K | Other material event | +0.1% | -0.8% | -1.4% | 0.8x | +1.5% | Neutral |
