CNC

Requested read · Monday 10 August 2026, 19:02 · same framework and thresholds as the weekly CFO screen

Market regime: SPY above its rising 200DMA; efficiency ratio 0.11 — overlapping, stand aside. Stage: Mature Trend.
CNC
Centene Corporation
Stand aside — insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group. (+1 more)
Early Trend Expansion XLV sector confirmed 1 insider(s) net purchase ratio -1.00 buy date unknown
52
conviction / 100
$0–$0
No trade / watch only · Hard gate breached.
Regime clarity15.5
Sponsorship / positioning7.0
Volatility behaviour16.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)0.0
Cross-asset confirmation13.0
Stand aside — hard gate breached
  • Insiders are net sellers — net purchase ratio -1.00 over the last 180 days (1 selling vs 0 buying). The CFO purchase is contradicted by the rest of the insider group.
  • Overlapping range behaviour — efficiency ratio 0.10 vs the 0.15 threshold (genuine chop).
Last
66.43
Add above
69.36
Cut below
57.21
50DMA
64.44
200DMA
47.48
CNC daily chart: price with 50 and 200 day moving averages, volume, and on-balance volume
CNC — daily, 14 months
XLV sector ETF daily chart
XLV — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
  • price above 200DMA
  • 200DMA rising
  • 50DMA rising
  • partial HH/HL structure
  • efficiency ratio 0.10 (overlapping)
Sponsorship / positioning
  • OBV 50d slope -0.061 avg-daily-volumes/bar
  • no OBV divergence at highs
  • OBV fell through last pullback
Volatility behaviour
  • last pullback 11.5% deep
  • no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
  • ATR expanding vs 20d mean
Catalyst alignment (insider)
  • single insider — no cluster
  • net purchase ratio -1.00 (0 buying vs 1 selling)
  • insiders are NET SELLERS over the window
  • NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
  • no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
Cross-asset confirmation
  • closest sector ETF: XLV
  • XLV above rising 200DMA (sector-led)
  • XLV vs SPY 6m: -5.2 pts
  • stock vs XLV RS (3m/6m avg): +33.3 pts
What strengthens the thesis
  • A confirmed higher high above 69.36 on expanding OBV.
  • Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
  • XLV extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
  • Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
What invalidates the thesis
  • Loss of the rising 50DMA (64.44) with expanding volatility — reduce.
  • Breakdown below the prior structural base (57.21) — exit, no averaging down.
  • OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
  • Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
Insider detail
  • CFO: —
  • 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
  • Market cap $32,813,619,200 · 20d avg dollar volume $340,407,912
Net insider activity
Insiders are NET SELLERS. The CFO purchase is contradicted.
Open-market purchases$0
Open-market sales$5,164,000
Sales after option exercise$0
Distinct buyers / sellers0 / 1
Net purchase ratio-1.00
Net purchase ratio, excl. option-exercise sales-1.00
Reaction to news
8 material events; 5 taken well, 0 badly; last earnings 28 Jul: shrugged off (-0.3%).
SessionFilingEventGapDayvs SPYVol+5dRead
29 Jul 268-KOther material event+0.8%-3.3%-1.7%1.8x+8.4%Neutral
28 Jul 2610-QQuarterly report-7.1%-0.3%-0.5%2.8x+0.3%Shrugged off
28 Jul 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings); Director or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure-7.1%-0.3%-0.5%2.8x+0.3%Shrugged off
22 Jun 268-KDirector or officer change; Regulation FD disclosure+1.6%+4.4%+4.7%0.9x+1.4%Rewarded
15 May 268-KDirector or officer change-0.4%-0.7%+0.5%0.6x+1.5%Neutral
28 Apr 2610-QQuarterly report+3.0%+14.0%+14.4%3.2x+6.9%Rewarded
28 Apr 268-K · earningsResults of operations (earnings)+3.0%+14.0%+14.4%3.2x+6.9%Rewarded
24 Mar 268-KDirector or officer change+0.1%+0.5%+0.9%1.2x-0.7%Neutral