AMCR
Amcor plc
Regime Shift, sector unconfirmed; strongest on volatility (20/20); weakest on insider signal (2/20). Last earnings shrugged off (-1.8%).
Regime Shift
XLY
sector not confirmed
1 insider(s)
buy date unknown
57
conviction / 100
-3.0 since 14 Aug
68.4
technical / 100
$10,000–$17,500
Probe
Regime clarity17.3
Sponsorship / positioning9.7
Volatility behaviour20.0
Catalyst alignment (insider)2.0
Cross-asset confirmation7.7
Last
46.03
Add above
49.46
Cut below
41.94
50DMA
43.35
200DMA
41.61
AMCR — daily, 14 months
XLY — sector ETF, daily, 14 months
Pillar detail, thesis support and invalidation
Regime clarity
What strengthens the thesis
- price above 200DMA
- 200DMA rising
- 50DMA rising
- partial HH/HL structure
- efficiency ratio 0.24
- OBV 50d slope +0.074 avg-daily-volumes/bar
- no OBV divergence at highs
- OBV fell through last pullback
- last pullback 6.8% deep
- no wide downside expansion bars (30d)
- ATR contracting vs 20d mean
- single insider — no cluster
- net purchase ratio unavailable
- NO CFO purchase in the window — the CFO-specific terms score zero
- no CFO buy to date — recency not scored
- closest sector ETF: XLY
- XLY above a flat 200DMA (stable)
- XLY vs SPY 6m: -12.4 pts
- stock vs XLY RS (3m/6m avg): +7.3 pts
- A confirmed higher high above 49.46 on expanding OBV.
- Pullbacks that hold the rising 50DMA with flat-to-rising OBV.
- XLY extending its own trend while the stock holds relative strength.
- Continued base-building above the reclaimed 200DMA without volatility expansion.
- Loss of the rising 50DMA (43.35) with expanding volatility — reduce.
- Breakdown below the prior structural base (41.94) — exit, no averaging down.
- OBV divergence during a price acceleration — reduce.
- Sector ETF losing its own 200DMA — remove capital regardless of stock behaviour.
- CFO: —
- 0 CFO purchase(s), — total; last filed
- Market cap $21,281,771,520 · 20d avg dollar volume $180,940,075
- No open-market insider transactions found in the lookback window.
8 material events; 1 taken well, 2 badly; last earnings 12 Aug: shrugged off (-1.8%).
| Session | Filing | Event | Gap | Day | vs SPY | Vol | +5d | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 26 | 10-K | Annual report | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 0.9x | — | Neutral |
| 14 Aug 26 | 8-K | Auditor change | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 0.9x | — | Neutral |
| 12 Aug 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +1.3% | -1.8% | -2.0% | 1.5x | — | Shrugged off |
| 15 Jun 26 | 8-K | Director or officer change | +2.6% | +1.3% | -0.5% | 0.9x | -1.7% | Neutral |
| 07 May 26 | 10-Q | Quarterly report | +0.5% | -0.7% | -0.4% | 1.2x | -3.3% | Neutral |
| 06 May 26 | 8-K · earnings | Results of operations (earnings) | +7.9% | +6.8% | +5.4% | 1.8x | -2.8% | Faded |
| 06 May 26 | 8-K | Material event | +7.9% | +6.8% | +5.4% | 1.8x | -2.8% | Faded |
| 10 Mar 26 | 8-K | Material agreement; Material obligation created; Other material event | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | 0.8x | -3.3% | Neutral |